By Keith Woolcock (Filed: 01/06/2006)
The truth, poet Wallace Stevens wrote, depends upon a walk around the lake. Lakes are thin on the ground in London but, over the past few weeks, as markets pitch and slide, I have, on several occasions, taken the Northern Line to Hampstead. Once there, I head to my favourite duck pond in the hope that truth might find me.
One thought keeps nagging me as I pick my way around the discarded beer cans and the odd syringe, which have a habit of intruding into paradise these days. It is an observation once made by the historian Niall Ferguson. He pointed out that markets are not that good at taking account of the really big shifts in world affairs. I think he might be on to something. If you did a straw poll among investors today I would guess that you’d find them pretty evenly split into two camps. There are those who think the market is sliding because global growth is poised to slow and, as a result, corporate profits will shrink. Then there are those who are scared witless by the prospect of inflation, or even stagflation. read more
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