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How much reliance can be placed on Royal Dutch Shell predictions?

Screen Shot 2014-02-13 at 17.22.27How much reliance can be placed on predictions emerging from Shell scenarios team? Very little if past accuracy of Shell predictions is any guide. Six years ago the then head of Royal Dutch Shell, the clueless Jeroen van der Veer predicted that the world would begin to run out of oil within 7 years – that’s next year. Since then, the whole outlook for oil and gas reserves has changed dramatically as a result of fracking and the US will surpass Saudi as the worlds top oil producer by 2016.

By John Donovan

Bloomberg news has published an article today under the headline Shell Sees Stable Oil Price for 20 Years With Volatility Bursts

Extract

In Shell’s “tighter” supply scenarios, crude prices could steadily increase over the 20 next years, while still going through periods of volatility that could see Brent falling to $70 a barrel, Bentham said.

How much reliance can be placed on predictions emerging from Shell scenarios team?

Very little if past accuracy of Shell predictions is any guide.

Six years ago the then head of Royal Dutch Shell, the clueless Jeroen van der Veer predicted that the world would begin to run out of oil within 7 years – that’s next year.

His alarm call was also picked up by The Times: Shell chief fears oil shortage in seven years.

Since then, the whole outlook for oil and gas reserves has changed dramatically as a result of fracking and the US will surpass Saudi as the worlds top oil producer by 2016.

In other words, Shell could not have been more wrong. So much for their predictions.

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