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Posts under ‘Peak Oil’

Shell’s long view

By Ed Crooks: Sunday September 10, 2017

Royal Dutch Shell this week set out its views on the outlook over the next few decades, in presentations to investors in New York and London. Shell has been thinking deeply for decades about how to model the future. The scenarios it sets out are more explicit about the uncertainties involved than other projections, which sometimes seem to imply that we can be confident oil consumption in 2040 will be 110.8m barrels per day, or with other overly precise figures. READ MORE read more

Cheap oil forcing a rethink, says Royal Dutch Shell

  • The Wall Street Journal

Royal Dutch Shell has presented a pessimistic vision for the future of oil, even as the company reported success in generating cash during a prolonged energy downturn. Shell has cut costs and said it was preparing for a world in which crude prices might never regain precrash levels and petroleum demand declined. Shell chief executive Ben van Beurden said the company had a mindset that oil prices would remain “lower forever”. “We have to have projects that are resilient in a world where oil has peaked,” Mr van Beurden told reporters on a conference call discussing the company’s second-quarter financial results. “When it will happen we don’t know, but that it will happen we are certain.” READ MORE read more

Royal Dutch Shell’s Realistic View On Oil Shows Why It Is The Best Oil Major

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screen-shot-2016-10-20-at-23-00-27Nov. 4, 2016 4:19 AM ET

Summary

  • Royal Dutch Shell CFO Simon Henry just forecast that global demand for oil could peak within the next 5 to 15 years and then decline.
  • This is surprising coming from an oil company executive, and runs counter to typical industry projections such as ExxonMobil’s that demand will grow 20% by 2040.
  • Shell will shift their focus to natural gas, biofuels, and hydrogen, in order to be “the energy major of the 2050s”.
  • I like Shell’s perspective a lot: It gives them multiple paths to success. Of course they will still be just fine if oil demand does keep growing.
  • But if Shell is right, they will be ready and their management decisions over the next 5 to 15 years will be two steps ahead of everyone else’s.

On its earnings conference call this week, Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) (NYSE: RDS.B) made a suprising commentary on its perspective for the global oil market over the next two decades: Its CFO Simon Henry forecast that global demand for oil could peak within the next 5 to 15 years and then decline.

Such an apparently pessimistic and bearish forecast is not what you usually expect to hear from a major oil company executive, to say the least. As the article pointed out, ExxonMobil’s (NYSE:XOM) annual outlook makes a more typical projection for the industry: about a 20% increase in global oil demand from 2014 to 2040. read more

No credibility in Shell Peak Oil Forecasts, says John Donovan

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screen-shot-2016-11-03-at-14-50-16A number of articles have been published today reporting a forecast by Shell CFO Simon Henry, that “Peak Oil” could be just 5 years away. e.g.

Oil Demand Peak Could Be Just 5 Years Away: Shell

Oil falls after Shell warns peak demand ‘five years off’

Shell makes a jaw-dropping statement on peak oil

It is, therefore, an appropriate moment to look back on a directly related forecast made in January 2008, by the then Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer. He forecast that demand for oil and gas would outstrip supply within 7 years, meaning by 2015. The hopelessly inaccurate prediction was based on an assessment from the Shell Scenarios team. No doubt many of the same geniuses now advising Simon Henry. read more

Shell thinks demand for oil could peak in five years

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Written by Bloomberg – 02/11/2016 4:16 pm

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the world’s second-biggest oil company by market value, thinks demand for oil could peak in as little as five years.

“We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply,” Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry said on a conference call on Tuesday. “And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport.” read more

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