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Shell News Tuesday 28 March 2017

Summary

  • The myth of a secure price range for OPEC in its battle against shale.
  • Why OPEC has painted itself into a corner, forcing it to extend lower output.
  • What’s far more important than OPEC and others’ cuts.
  • Cuts or not – low-cost shale producers like Shell will produce at a profit.

FULL ARTICLE

More Shell News Friday 24 March 2017

Geologist for Shell says company hid Nigeria spill dangers: Associated Press

Royal Dutch Shell’s Nigeria subsidiary “fiercely opposed” environmental testing and is concealing data showing thousands of Nigerians are exposed to health hazards from a stalled cleanup of the worst oil spills in the West African nation’s history, according to a German geologist contracted by the Dutch-British multinational.

Shell says to start cleaning up 2008 Nigeria oil spills in April: Seeking Alpha

The head of a group helping organize Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDS.A, RDS.B) clean-up of 2008 oil spills at a Nigerian Delta community says he hopes work can begin next monthShell agreed in 2015 on a £55M ($68.6M) settlement with the Bodo community after accepting liability for two pipeline leaks… read more

Shell News Stories Friday 24 March 2017

Shell sells onshore Gabon oil assets to Carlyle for $587 mln: Reuters/Daily Mail

EXTRACT: For Shell, the deal marks a further step in a $30 billion asset disposal programme to help cut debt after its $54 billion acquisition of BG Group last year. The Anglo-Dutch oil company has sold assets for more than $15 billion since 2016.

WSJ: Shell report cites “astonishingly high” pollution from Nigerian oil spills: Seeking Alpha

EXTRACT: Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) oil spills that have not been cleaned up for more than eight years have contributed to “astonishingly high” levels of pollution in a Nigerian community, WSJ reports, citing a consultant who helped produce a confidential damage assessment for the company and its partners. The former director of the cleanup project says Shell has denied him permission to publish the study’s results, which dictated a need for health screenings in the Bodo community. read more

Current Shell News Stories 23 March 2017

New Boss of Shell Exploration

Links below to a selection of current news stories posted on our sister website royaldutchshellgroup.com covering, among other developments, news that Shell’s head of exploration Ceri Powell will step down in February and be replaced by Shell upstream strategy VP Marc Gerrits.

There is also coverage of yet further litigation relating to Shell’s activities in Nigeria. This time a claim against Shell for $406.7 million being brought by the Nigerian Federal Government.

The news is no better from Canada. According to the Canadian Press, Shell is suffering setbacks with exploration wells off Nova Scotia. read more

Shell, Total to sign oil deals with Iran

Dec. 7, 2016 5:48 AM ET| By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) and Total (NYSE:TOT) will signinitial agreements today to develop oil and gas fields in Iran, in the first European petroleum deals in the country since sanctions eased earlier this year.

But the plans open both companies to potential risks from the incoming Trump administration.

Though Total is French and Shell is jointly headquartered in London and The Hague, both companies have substantial American operations. read more

FT: Western oil companies reach $5B deal with Nigeria

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Nov. 8, 2016 10:23 AM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Nigeria’s government has reached an outline settlement to resolve a dispute with western energy firms that would pay the companies $5B to cover exploration and production joint venture costs in the country, Financial Times reports.

Nigeria’s petroleum minister tells FT that Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Eni (NYSE:E), Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Total (NYSE:TOT) accepted the settlement of costs incurred during 2010-15, and hopes a deal can be finalized by year-end. read more

Royal Dutch Shell: The Comeback Is Here

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Alpha Investor: Sunday Nov 6, 2016

Summary

  • Shell posted a massive turnaround in its bottom line last quarter on the back of an improved production profile, lower costs, and higher price realizations.
  • Shell’s financial improvement is set to continue going forward as upstream oil price realizations will continue to improve on the back of a positive demand-supply environment in the oil industry.
  • Oil demand has exceeded supply by 500,000 bpd this year and the trend will continue as the likes of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. continue to reduce output.
  • Shell’s focus on lowering both operating and capital costs will allow it to attain break-even point even if oil prices remain at $50/barrel, which will also improve cash flow.

On Tuesday last week, Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) reported impressive results for the third quarter. In fact, Shell was able to achieve a major turnaround in its bottom line performance, posting a profit of $1.4 billion as compared to a huge loss of $6.1 billion in the same quarter last year. This impressive turnaround in Shell’s bottom line was a result of an increase in production as compared to the prior-year period, driven by the acquisition of BG that led to a favorable production mix in the upstream segment. read more

Royal Dutch Shell’s Realistic View On Oil Shows Why It Is The Best Oil Major

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screen-shot-2016-10-20-at-23-00-27Nov. 4, 2016 4:19 AM ET

Summary

  • Royal Dutch Shell CFO Simon Henry just forecast that global demand for oil could peak within the next 5 to 15 years and then decline.
  • This is surprising coming from an oil company executive, and runs counter to typical industry projections such as ExxonMobil’s that demand will grow 20% by 2040.
  • Shell will shift their focus to natural gas, biofuels, and hydrogen, in order to be “the energy major of the 2050s”.
  • I like Shell’s perspective a lot: It gives them multiple paths to success. Of course they will still be just fine if oil demand does keep growing.
  • But if Shell is right, they will be ready and their management decisions over the next 5 to 15 years will be two steps ahead of everyone else’s.

On its earnings conference call this week, Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) (NYSE: RDS.B) made a suprising commentary on its perspective for the global oil market over the next two decades: Its CFO Simon Henry forecast that global demand for oil could peak within the next 5 to 15 years and then decline.

Such an apparently pessimistic and bearish forecast is not what you usually expect to hear from a major oil company executive, to say the least. As the article pointed out, ExxonMobil’s (NYSE:XOM) annual outlook makes a more typical projection for the industry: about a 20% increase in global oil demand from 2014 to 2040. read more

Shell swings to a profit, outlook uncertain

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screen-shot-2016-10-20-at-23-00-27Nov. 1, 2016 4:30 AM ET|By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor

“Shell delivered better results this quarter… but lower oil prices continue to be a significant challenge across the business, and the outlook remains uncertain,” Chief Executive Ben van Beurden said in a statement.

Earnings on a current cost of supplies basis reached $1.4B in Q3, after contracting $6.1B in the same period a year ago, as higher production from acquisition BG Group and lower operating costs helped support earnings. read more

Royal Dutch Shell – Additional Divestments In Order To Sustain The Dividend

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Oct. 21, 2016 10:17 AM ET

Summary

  • Shell is announcing further divestments, this time selling part of its shale operations in Canada.
  • These moves do little to address the giant debt load, although they allow for cash flow neutrality this year.
  • Asset sales, resulting in smaller operations, combined with shareholder dilution hurt the long term potential as management stubbornly tries to preserve the dividend.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) announced another round of divestments in order to keep leverage under control, even as oil prices have rebounded a bit in recent times. These modest divestments are countercyclical and hurt production quite a bit in relation to the proceeds. At best cash outflows come to a standstill this year following these moves, although they result in a smaller business going forward, while investors see dilution of the shareholder base in order to sustain the unsustainable dividend. read more

Fitch: Batteries could be key disruptor to oil industry in “investor death spiral”

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Oct 18 2016, 12:45 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Oil producers such as ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) must prepare for radical change as adoption of new technologies like electric cars could happen faster than originally anticipated, according to a new report from Fitch Ratings.

“Widespread adoption of battery-powered vehicles is a serious threat to the oil industry,” and an acceleration of the electrification of transport infrastructure could create an “investor death spiral” as investors flee the oil patch, Fitch warns. read more

Shell says it remains committed to Showa Shell stake sale despite hangup

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Oct 13 2016, 14:58 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) says it remains committed to selling the majority of its stake in Japanese venture Showa Shell to refiner Idemitsu after the Japanese entities announced an indefinite delay of a planned merger.

The founding family of Idemitsu, which controls a 33.9% stake in the refinery, opposes the merger, although the company says it has not changed its plan to buy a one-third stake in Showa Shell for ~¥170B ($1.7B) this month or next. read more

Royal Dutch Shell: The Turnaround Will Continue

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screen-shot-2016-10-06-at-13-11-55Alpha Investor: 12 October 2016

Summary

Royal Dutch Shell shares have received a boost in the past month on the back of an improvement in oil prices, a trend that is likely to continue.

There was excess oil demand of 500,000 bpd in the third quarter as against supply due to production cuts across the globe and robust demand, leading to an inventory correction.

Oil prices will rise further as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. are all intent on reducing the industry oversupply, which will lead to further inventory declines. read more

Outlook For Shell Mixed – Caution Ahead

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Gary Bourgeault: October 7, 2016

Summary

  • Debt load associated with BG Group acquisition still weighs heavily on Shell.
  • With a larger percentage of its business gas, it continues to struggle to sustainably break the $3 barrier.
  • EPS will probably drop by over 40 percent for the year.
  • Nigerian asset sales and risks to other holdings in the nation remain a concern.
  • Dividend could remain at current level if the price of oil and gas maintain a higher bottom.

Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE:RDS.A) has been taking some good steps to prepare for what it believes will be a strong future for LNG demand, as it puts various pieces of its infrastructure in place around the world. It has the goal of continuing to focus primarily on gas as its major product, looking for a time when it sustainably rebounds in price.

The long term prospects for Shell look fairly solid, but it does face some significant headwinds in the short term, including the debt overhang coming from its acquisition of BG Group, downward pressure on earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS), prolonged period of lower natural gas prices, and the loss of revenue from asset sales in Nigeria, along with the risk in the country for other projects it still has there. read more

Oil: OPEC Finally Agrees And Investor Takeaways

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Dividend Income: 5 October 2016

Summary

  • OPEC has agreed to put a ceiling on oil production at 32.5 million barrels per day, representing a 900k cut from its current output at 33.4 million.
  • The news supported oil’s rise by nearly 10 percent, and benefits some companies significantly more than others.
  • The author still recommends to stay away from offshore, but upstream producers with lower break even cost could be an attractive investment. Integrated majors’ dividends are also safer than ever.

News Summary

To the surprise of everyone, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Nations (OPEC) has agreed to put a ceiling on oil production at 32.5 million barrels per day, which is significantly less than its current 33.4 million barrels per day of production. The news has helped oil price rally nearly 10% to almost $51.50 per barrel Brent.

In this article, I will try to dissect the news and its effect on integrated majors, upstream producers and offshore producers. Of course, the news benefit some of these companies significantly more than others, which are actually unaffected or evenly negatively affected by the news. Similarly, I will analyze how it will affect the United State Oil ETF (NYSEARCA:USO) and other oil related ETFs going forward. read more

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