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Bloomberg accused of publishing false Royal Dutch Shell production forecasts

POSTING ON SHELL BLOG BY “Outsider”

How much did Shell pay Bloomberg to misquote their production forecasts?

It is unbelievable that two of Bloomberg’s journalists have put out a story, reprinted around the world again and again, which is completely false. Shell’s own forecast in the Deutsche Bank presentation is that they will be producing 3.2 MMBOE/day in 2012, while BP expect to produce 4.1 MMBOE/day.

Shell overtaking BP? I don’t think so. Some of the articles even attribute yesterday’s increase in Shell’s share price to the claim that Shell will increase their production by 30% – could it be that someone is deliberately trying to manipulate the share price?

SUBSEQUENT SHELL BLOG POSTING BY “INSIDER”

Outsider: well spotted! In Henry’s presentation he mentions a 5% decline from existing fields. This is hope over reason. Just look at viewgraph 8 of the famous overpromise-underdelivery presentation in 2000. I am sure you can get hold of a copy. In those days the decline of existing oil assets was 10% per year and this was based on very detailed and thorough work by professionals.

If anything, the decline will now be steeper because Shell has trained and developed people good at behavioural skills and preferably working in finance or HR and much less in the mundane fieldmonitoring and dreadful reservoir engineering. That is something the service contractors will do for us. (Remember that Jennings was of the opinion HR meant Human Remains, a scandal ensued and he apologised. But we were all wrong and he was right!!!).

So, if Henry thinks we will decline by 5%, this means gasassets are infinite and will not decline. Therefore I humbly suggest Simon to go speak (or more important, LISTEN) to some reservoir engineers who will explain it slowly to him. These should be reservoir engineers who are close to retirement and have nothing to fear. There should be one or two left… And don’t tell Brinded you spoke to a reservoir engineer because he might blow a fuse!

Couple all this highly optimistic forecasting (other people might call it lies) to the recent inability of Shell to deliver on major projects and the 3.25 mln boe/day becomes very dodgy.

No doubt we will be following the production endeavours of Shell on the Donovan site.

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Did Bloomberg publish false Shell production forecasts?

Shell Committed to Oil Sands, to Maintain Investments, CEO Says

Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) — Royal Dutch Shell Plc remains committed to investing in Canadian oil sands after putting on hold the expansion of the second phase of the Athabasca project in Alberta, its chief executive officer said today.

Click to continue reading “Shell Committed to Oil Sands, to Maintain Investments, CEO Says”

Oil Curve Steeper Than ‘99 Shows Crude May Gain in ‘09 on OPEC

Shell, based in The Hague, postponed a decision to expand its Athabasca oil-sands project in Canada. Valero Energy, the largest U.S. refiner, said in October it will defer projects to cut spending by about $500 million, or 17 percent.

Click to continue reading “Oil Curve Steeper Than ‘99 Shows Crude May Gain in ‘09 on OPEC”

Crude Oil Rises First Time in 3 Days After U.A.E. Cuts Output

“Crude hasn’t bottomed out as yet because we are getting so much bad economic news,” said Tony Regan, a Singapore-based independent energy consultant, who formerly worked for Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Nexant Inc.

Click to continue reading “Crude Oil Rises First Time in 3 Days After U.A.E. Cuts Output”

Samsung Bets on Shell Floating LNG as Orders Fall

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) — Samsung Heavy Industries Co. and Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. are betting that Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s plan for untried floating gas-export terminals will spur billions of dollars in orders as the shipping market collapses.

Click to continue reading “Samsung Bets on Shell Floating LNG as Orders Fall”

Shell Expands LNG Import Capacity in India

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) — Petronet LNG Ltd. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc are expanding liquefied natural gas import capacity in India even as the global recession cuts demand and prices of the fuel decline.

Click to continue reading “Shell Expands LNG Import Capacity in India”

Eating Isn’t Option When Minnesota Corn Burns in Houston Cars

Today, burning crops like corn, soybeans and sugar cane for fuel is policy in the U.S., Brazil and the European Union — while almost 1 billion of the world’s 6.8 billion people are hungry, the most in a generation.

Click to continue reading “Eating Isn’t Option When Minnesota Corn Burns in Houston Cars”

Exxon May Lift Spending as Rivals Cut

Meanwhile, competitors including Royal Dutch Shell Plc, StatoilHydro ASA, EnCana Corp. and Petro-Canada announced planned spending cuts or postponement of projects, following oil prices’ decline from its peak in July, the report stated.

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Contango Pays Most in Decade as Shell Stores Crude

Shell and Koch Industries Inc. of Wichita, Kansas, also hired four supertankers to hold oil in the U.S. Gulf Coast to take advantage of rising prices in the months ahead. They took Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs, to move oil from the Middle East, said Bruce Kahler, a broker at Lone Star, R.S. Platou in Houston.

Click to continue reading “Contango Pays Most in Decade as Shell Stores Crude”

Chevron May Sell Refineries as Demand, Margins Shrink

Chevron Corp., the world’s fourth- largest oil company, may sell some refineries as recessions in the world’s largest economies cut demand for gasoline and diesel, squeezing fuel-production margins.

Click to continue reading “Chevron May Sell Refineries as Demand, Margins Shrink”