The Toronto Star: CIBC’s Jeff Rubin says crude will hit $150 U.S. a barrel within 4 years

Jan 11, 2008 04:30 AM
Tyler Hamilton
Energy Reporter

Maverick economist Jeff Rubin, who is at the top of his game these days, says Canadians shouldn’t be surprised to see gasoline at $1.50 a litre and oil at $150 (U.S.) a barrel within the next four years – possibly much sooner.

Oil depletion from existing fields is outpacing new supply, argues the chief economist of CIBC World Markets, and what supply the International Energy Agency and other tracking bodies are optimistically counting on involves complex and costly “mega-projects” that are likely to see major delays.

And this, according to a CIBC report released yesterday, doesn’t even account for the unpredictable: escalating geopolitical tensions and extreme weather events.

“What we don’t appreciate is that the oil-sands delays (we’ve seen) are not a unique story. It’s happening in the very fields where the world is expecting to get its future supply,” Rubin told the Toronto Star.

“Don’t think of today’s prices as a spike. Don’t think of them as a temporary aberration. Think of them as the beginning of a new era.”

The impact on the Canadian dollar will also be felt, he said. “Notwithstanding what’s happening to the dollar now, if oil goes to $150 and the Canadian oil sands become the marginal barrel of oil (the dollar) is going up.”

It wouldn’t be Rubin’s first break-from-the-pack forecast. For more than a decade the 53-year-old economist has sparked controversy by calling economic outcomes that most of his peers have dismissed as long shots.

He supports the peak oil theory and believes we’ve already passed the peak in conventional production. He sees carbon priced at $30 a tonne and a continental cap on emissions within three years. And he says if we’re serious about fighting climate change, consumers should face higher energy prices to spark meaningful conservation.

Sometimes he nails it. He correctly predicted in 2000 that oil would average $50 by mid-decade and, two years ago, was right when he said oil would hit $100 by the end of 2007 (though Goldman Sachs made the prediction a year earlier).

Rubin also suggested back in 2005 the Canadian dollar was on its way to parity with the greenback, and last June predicted it would happen before year’s end. It did.

“I think my calls have been pretty good,” said Rubin, who first grabbed the spotlight in 1989 when he went against the grain and correctly predicted a collapse in the Toronto real estate market.

But sometimes his calls have fallen flat.

In 1992, Rubin forecast an economic recovery from the 1990-’91 recession and for several years nothing much happened. And in 1995 he called for more aggressive cuts to the federal deficit, only to backtrack a year later and blame the deficit payoff for sluggish economic growth.

More recently, he predicted the S&P/TSX composite index would hit 15,000 by the end of 2007, but reality came nowhere close. And now he is locked into a prediction it will reach 16,200 by the end of this year at a time when the economy is slowing.

He stands by it.

“The TSX call isn’t looking good right now, but we’ll see if that’s a one-quarter head fake,” he said, adding that merger and acquisition activity in the energy sector will carry his prediction.

David Detomasi, a professor of international business at Queen’s School of Business, called Rubin’s track record “pretty good” but calls his oil analysis a “bit of an exaggeration.”

“We should get a moderation in the price, because we’re getting a bit more of a build-up in the system,” said Detomasi, pointing out that $60 a barrel is a more realistic long-term projection. Many economists, expecting oil demand to drop alongside a U.S. economic slowdown, also see the price falling. “I’m not saying prices will drop significantly, but they ought to drop,” he said.

Though he admitted a lot could happen by 2012. “There are quite a few ifs, ands and buts between now and $150.”

http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/293042

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