DAILY EXPRESS: WE’LL BEGIN TO RUN OUT OF OIL WITHIN 7 YEARS

 

Jeroen van der Veer, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell

Saturday January 26,2008
By Graham Hiscott, Consumer Editor 

DEMAND for oil and gas will outstrip supply within seven years, the head of one of the world’s biggest energy producers warned yesterday.

Jeroen van der Veer, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, predicts conventional supplies will fail to keep pace with population growth and booming economies.

The comments, from the boss of a multinational energy giant, will be seen as a wake-up call to the world.

If proved correct, the shortages would have have devastating consequences for almost everyone.

Oil and gas prices would soar, affecting everything from heating the home and filling-up the car, to the cost of manufacturing and the price of retail goods.

Mr van der Veer’s comments came in a hard-hitting statement ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

He said: “After 2015, easily accessible supplies of oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.”

The world faced having to choose between two scenarios for the future, he warned.

The first, which Shell calls Scramble, involves nations concentrating on their own energy needs, paying little attention to energy efficiency and continuing to pump out greenhouse gases.

The second, dubbed Blueprints, would see countries working together to cut CO2 emissions through the use of taxes and better vehicle, building and fuel design.

Mr van der Veer said: “Shell traditionally uses its scenarios to prepare for the future without expressing a preference.

“But, faced with the need to manage climate risk for our investors and our descendants, we believe the Blueprints outcome provides the best balance between economy, energy and environment.”

Oil prices soared to a record US$100 dollars (£51) a barrel at the end of 2007, with wholesale gas for this year also at an all-time high.

Jeremy Nicholson, director of the Energy Intensive Users Council, said: “It seems to be at the pessimistic end of predictions. However, nobody is expecting the price of oil to go back to levels of a couple of years ago when it was selling for around $20 (£10) a barrel.

“Worldwide demand is rising and supply can only increase at a certain rate.

“Even when you find new deposits of oil and gas, it takes time to put them into production. And that’s without the problem of a shortage of refinery capacity.

“If his comments are proved correct, you could see the cost of oil soaring above $100 a barrel because the only way to bring supply and demand into line is to choke off demand.”

Simon Wardell, senior energy analyst at Global Insight, said: “The prediction could well be true if we were to rely on conventional sources of oil.

“However, there are unconventional sources and things like bio-fuels that could act as substitutes.”

Nick Rau, energy campaigner at Friends Of The Earth, rejected Shell’s backing for nuclear power but welcomed Mr van der Veer’s call for action.

He said: “At least they are acknowledging that oil reserves are decreasing.”

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/32789/We-ll-begin-to-run-out-of-oil-within-7-years

This website and sisters royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, and shellnews.net, are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia segment.