By John Donovan
Shell seers who failed to predict the reserves scandal and Shell’s Arctic meltdown, now offer their latest peek into the future. Past performance does not inspire confidence in their prophecies… The famed corporate crystal ball never revealed a world in which its so-called No.1 Enemy would be operating globally under the Royal Dutch Shell Plc top level domain name, dealing on Shell’s behalf with job applications, business proposals, complaints, invitations to speak at conferences, and even terrorist threats. This was a scenario apparently deemed too far beyond the realms of possibility to be contemplated, but it is nonetheless the incredible reality and has been for getting on to a decade. How on earth did such a supposedly far-sighted management end up in such a humiliating situation?
With the world’s population headed toward 9 billion at mid-century and millions of people climbing out of poverty, global energy demand could increase by as much as 80% by 2050. That’s according to Shell’s latest , which look at trends in the economy, politics and energy in considering developments over the next half a century.
What might lie ahead 50 years from now… or even in 2100? We consider two possible scenarios of the future, taking a number of pressing global trends and issues and using them as “lenses” through which to view the world.The scenarios provide a detailed analysis of current trends and their likely trajectory into the future. They dive into the implications for the pace of global economic development, the types of energy we use to power our lives and the growth in greenhouse gas emissions.