By John Donovan

Successive Royal Dutch Shell CEO’s cannot say that they were not warned time and again in chilling terms about the Prelude “experiment”, the description used in a Forbes article published today.

The links below are to a series of articles, initially triggered by a well-placed whistleblower directly involved in the Prelude project. Includes articles by Mr Bill Campbell, the retired distinguished Shell Global Safety Consultant and another retired Shell guru with a track record of spotting potential pitfalls in major Shell projects. read more

Expert comments received in response to the BoilingCold article by Peter Milne “No winners from Shell’s $US17B Prelude floating LNG”

Comment from retired Shell International Global Safety Consultant, Bill Campbell:

It’s all rather depressing, most worrying aspect as implied in the article is the potential gas supply, or lack of it, from the homogeneous and shared reservoir with another operator bleeding off volumes.

The boilingcold.com.au journalist Peter Milne has given the most detailed analysis yet of the Prelude story, elements of both tragedy and farce.

COMMENT FROM “AN OLD SHELL E&P ENGINEERING SEA DOG”

As before I feel very sorry for the Aussies who are under extreme pressure to get this unit up and running.  I do not quite understand the journalist comment of “gas is running out”.  It is a shared reservoir therefore there will be an agreement for the total volumes in place and a regular review taking place to determine the remaining producible volumes and the agreed volume share for each operator.

The links below are to a series of articles, many triggered by a well-placed whistleblower directly involved in the pioneering Royal Dutch Shell Prelude project. Includes articles by Mr Bill Campbell above, the retired distinguished HSE Group Auditor of Shell International and another retired Shell guru with a track record of spotting potential pitfalls in major Shell projects.

The fears voiced by Bill Campbell about a loss of containment (see article link 3) have proven well-founded.

Ask the Australian National Offshore Petroleum and Environmental Management Authority.

ARTICLE: Voser wisely abandons an unstable ship: 28 December 2013

ARTICLE: Royal Dutch Shell Prelude to disaster?: 10 Jan 2014

ARTICLE: Shell Prelude FLNG: loss of containment of hydrocarbons almost inevitable: 21 Feb 2014

ARTICLE: What should frighten stiff Royal Dutch Shell shareholders: 15 March 2014

ARTICLE: Tales of the Unexpected and Royal Dutch Shell Prelude FLNG: 28 March 2014

ARTICLE: Prelude FLNG: A case of all your eggs in the one basket: 10 July 2014

ARTICLE: Prelude FLNG risks are on par with modern offshore oil and gas facilities say Shell – but are they?: 23 Sept 2014 read more

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LATEST BILL CAMPBELL THOUGHTS ON PRELUDE EMERGENCY SHUT DOWN

John

It looks like the content of your web pages have contributed to a better understanding of the troubles of this project, at one time heralded as the shining city on the hill.

It seems reading between the lines that the power problems, the terrible PR, the fall in the LNG price etc, but particularly that they could not continue working on the plant intrusively with inadequate isolation, are all factors. 

Perhaps this is a chance to remedy what appears to be a significant amount of defects including defective process isolation and venting in the design, inaccurate drawings P&IDs etc and incorrect identification of equipment – as an example the RV being replaced was wrongly tagged. read more

Prelude shutdown

OPERATION of the world’s largest offshore facility, Shell’s embattled Prelude floating LNG vessel, has descended into chaos with back up power generation failing, cardboard potties issued to replace regular toilet facilities and a fleet of helicopters called in to reduce crew numbers.

05 February 2020

Only last week Shell chief executive Ben van Buerden told analysts the Prelude was evidence of how new assets would improve the gas giant’s cash flow in 2020. read more

Reaction to Shell’s temporary shut down of Prelude

The initial reaction from Bill Campbell

Trying to interpret what is going on is difficult because of lack of detail from journalist report so maybe misinterpreting what happened and my interpretation may be misguided, but… evidence if more is needed that something is wrong on this installation. read more

PRELUDE COMMENTS FROM “AN OLD SHELL E&P ENGINEERING SEA DOG”

With reference to the published info from Bill regarding the very serious operational shortcomings on the Prelude NGL vessel.

It may be worthwhile publishing the entire notice as if it read by senior people in the Hague central offices there may be a sounding of very loud alarm bells if not there should be as Prelude represents an enormous investment and a leap into the future.  The root cause of these issues requires to be identified and a root and branch analysis of how and why this state of affairs has been allowed to evolve, I believe it is a cumulative pressure from many sources over many months and not just the recent inspections, its much deeper than that. We can only speculate and read with a degree of horror the findings of the Australian Regulator. read more

By Bill Campbell

On 22 January past the Regulator wrote to Shell Australia with a direction, a mandatory notice requiring action by the Owner, because staff on Prelude FLNG were carrying out activities the risks of which were not being reduced to levels as low as reasonably practicable and thus there was a significant risk to the Health and Safety of persons on the facility.

In issuance of this direction, they took cognisance of three previous dangerous occurrences all resulting in a loss of containment, namely read more

Please read in conjunction with the recent comments made by Bill Campbell in the article Alarming warning to the Australian National Offshore Petroleum and Environmental Management Authority about Shell Prelude Project

By Bill Campbell

Hydrocarbon leaks an ever-present danger – the argument with respect to inevitability

HSE started in 1992 to record and classify dangerous occurrences including hydrocarbon releases. This was adopted as their principal technical integrity measure. In the circa quarter of a century from 1992 to 2015, for example, there were 4656 hydrocarbon releases on average 194 per annum. The latest data available is for 2018 where the number of releases was recorded at 96 per annum, so there has been a trend downwards but this should not be understood to be a significant improvement because the population number of installations in 1992 was larger than the number in 2018 due to installations being abandoned at end of life. In any case, the reality is that over the period 1992 to 2015 there was between 3 to 4 hydrocarbon releases per week and in 2018 there was approaching two hydrocarbon releases per week. This can not be viewed as a significant reduction in risk because hydrocarbon loss into the atmosphere, whether it be minor significant or major, are all classified as dangerous occurrences because of the potential of these incidents. read more

Alarming warning addressed to The Australian National Offshore Petroleum and Environmental Management Authority.

Bill Campbell

Please read the information below from retired Shell Global Safety Consultant, Bill Campbell about the fears of a loss of hydrocarbons from the Shell Prelude facility. His comments were triggered by the recent article on Prelude FLNG and the recent intervention and involvement of the Regulator

Preamble 

Some 30 years of government statistics from some 200 installations in U.K. waters demonstrate that despite it being the Regulator and the industries highest safety priority a significant number of dangerous occurrences re the loss of hydrocarbons has continued over this prolonged period. No one will or could argue on this conclusion based not on supposition but on historic data that there is and continues to be a certain inevitability that hydrocarbons will leak into the atmosphere. Subsequent ignition of these leaking hydrocarbons has the potential of loss of life or threats to the structure of the installation. read more

Shell issued direction from regulator over Prelude processes

SHELL Australia has been issued a direction from the national regulator over health and safety concerns at the Prelude floating LNG facility offshore northern Western Australia.

Paul Hunt: Senior Journalist: Oil & Gas, Policy. 29 Jan 2020

The Prelude FLNG facility produces natural gas from an offshore field approximately 475km north-north east of Broome and last weekend shipped its 15^th cargo of LNG.

This morning the National Offshore Petroleum and Environmental Management Authority (NOSPEMA) ordered Shell not to conduct “intrusive activities” to certain parts of the plant and equipment aboard the Prelude over fears there could be a loss of hydrocarbons from the facility.

There is no immediate threat or risk to workers or the environment. read more

Article by Bill Campbell, retired HSE Group Auditor, Shell International

Subject: Unethical, unwarranted reporting by the Independent and Guardian on the risks of leaving concrete gravity-based structures in situ

Anyone who cares to get at the truth, who spends 30 minutes looking through reports, many of which are independent and supported by authorities in UK and also Norway et al will come quickly to the conclusion that the alarming headlines that these structures are full and brimming with crude oil and chemicals, and represent a ticking time bomb are not only fake news but patently untrue.

The alarming articles in question

The Guardian: UK facing EU outrage over ‘timebomb’ of North Sea oil rigs: 4 Sept 2019

The Independent: North Sea oil rigs set to be abandoned while still full of crude oil and chemicals: 4 Sept 2019

In fact, the studies conducted to date suggest a high risk of failure in attempting to raise these structures with the individual risk of fatality of one per structure which in itself may if anything be an underestimate and does not include the potential loss of life of breaking up the structures at some land-based site.

No one is suggesting that cost, mainly the cost to you and I as taxpayers is high, with the total cost of lifting and removal included in the grand total of some 20 billion for all its North Sea facilities with the 14 billion of this being paid by our Government from your taxes. But cost does not appear to be the driver in the decision-making process. read more

Expert Opinion on the content of the recent Upstream Online article: “Shell learns from Prelude challenges” 

Rob Jager cannot be as naive as this, he has a  distinguished career in Shell and also been appointed by the New Zealand Government to lead investigations into the tragic Mining accident some years ago.  Clearly not a numpty so why is he making such statements claiming the Prelude is such a magnificent project it will operate perfectly and become boring.

Hydrocarbon Production Operations that I have experienced over many years have never been boring ever.  Every day brings something different to be addressed and Prelude is and will be no different.  Prelude is not receiving a semi-processed feed stack to refine or reform or blend but raw reservoir hydrocarbons.  Even in the case of a rich gas hydrocarbon reservoir, the well effluent will contain a full range of hydrocarbon gas mixtures, carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulphide water vapour and a whole host of trace gasses and other undesirable soluble and insoluble salts.  Notwithstanding during initial production or subsequent well work-over, residual drilling fluids and completion debris some of which will have found its way into the umbilicals and hydraulic well control and safety shut down systems and cause untold havoc. read more

Second LNG cargo from Prelude

Overnight intelligence information about Shell Prelude sent to retired Shell International HSE consultant, Bill Campbell

It looks as though there is still “trouble at mill” as its almost 24 days since the first cargo which would suggest around running at 25% capacity. read more

Reading Rob Jäger, who I knew in Shell many years past, is like listening somewhat to my comments about Prelude starting way back in 2012 or so being replayed and replayed………suddenly, everything is not so tickety-boo. Think it’s telling that this historically proud, nay boastful and confident project so sure and aware of itself in the past is so reluctant to give a firm start-up date for LNG and so reluctant to just tell the world why?

By retired Shell Global Safety Consultant, Bill Campbell

Just some background thoughts, we all wish this project well but there is a lot that doesn’t appear to stack up in the Jager piece

Reading Rob Jäger, who I knew in Shell many years past, is like listening somewhat to my comments about Prelude starting way back in 2012 or so being replayed and replayed………suddenly, everything is not so tickety-boo.  Rob talks about safety and risk so underplayed before, he talks about large vessel but small area for LNG plant so underplayed before, he talks about risk almost discounted before because Prelude was so safe , now Safety, safety is the key, its the first project by the way in the long history of Shell that is in his words NOT driven by milestones and schedule, sorry don’t believe a word of it. read more

RETIRED SHELL CHIEF SAFETY OFFICER: Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) has gained its reputation as an organisation with no morality that if it can get away with it will lie repeatedly even when trapped by its own evidence, by its own falsehoods. It seems based on its track record RDS has no justification to support its protestations about public authorities using whatever legitimate means they can to dig out from the corruption cesspit the truth.  

By Bill Campbell [from 1996 to retirement Upstream Senior Maintenance Engineer, Global Consultant on this and Techical and Finance audits before retirement as SIEP Audit Manager]

Re the article on the Moerdijk explosion and the Dutch prosecutors getting to the truth don’t you think it’s a bit rich that RDS protests? Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) has gained its reputation as an organisation with no morality that if it can get away with it will lie repeatedly even when trapped by its own evidence, by its own falsehoods. read more

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