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Why Shell Prelude is such a risky gamble!

After all is said and done who would build a hotel and a heliport, and a dock, besides or within 100 metres of a hazardous substances plant. It would simply not be allowed on land. This is what makes Prelude so risky.

Comment from Bill Campbell on the article:

Shell’s ill-fated $14bn gamble on Titanic Prelude FLNG Barge

FLNG

If FLNG has a future remains to be seen. It is under any measure an outstanding technical achievement. My only concern is the misplaced statements by RDS and Shell Australia on the risks. Doomcaster and I are in agreement, there is and always will be during the commissioning and steady state operation a risk of leakage so we can say the probability side of the risk equation is well understood. Whether it be human failure or otherwise leaks are difficult to avoid. The best database for leaks in the World is the homogeneous population of over 200 North Sea installations covered in HSE data which confirms in 11 years of operation that leakage frequency has a mean time between failures of circa 3 days. My problem is with the huge inventory and congested space is that Shell seriously downplays the potential consequence side of the risk equation. Post Piper Alpha and post Seveso there are two principal risk reducers, reduced inventory (fuel) and lots of space seperating modules from each other, from human habitation, control rooms, admin blocks, and from storage tanks. After all is said and done who would build a hotel and a heliport, and a dock, besides or within 100 metres of a hazardous substances plant. It would simply not be allowed on land. This is what makes Prelude so risky. read more

Shell’s ill-fated $14bn gamble on Titanic Prelude FLNG Barge

The Prelude, which is 488m long, arrived in Australia last month © PA

By John Donovan

Shell’s Prelude barge has been described as the biggest floating structure ever built and is said to be 12 times the size of the Titanic. It is a comparison that for obvious reasons Shell does not use, although others do. There have been far more dire warnings about the dangers attached to Prelude than were made about the Titanic’s maiden voyage before it tragically sunk. Most have come from a well-placed insider on the Prelude project and subsequently from Bill Campbell, the retired HSE Group Auditor of Shell International. read more

Australia’s $180 bln LNG megaproject boom enters final stretch

By Sonali Paul

MELBOURNE, Aug 14 (Reuters) – The last massive component of Australia’s $180 billion liquefied natural gas construction boom arrived on Monday, stepping up a race between Anglo-Dutch giant Shell and Japan’s Inpex to start chilling gas for export in 2018. Company reputations are at stake, as well as first access to overlapping gas fields and Australia leapfrogging Qatar as the world’s largest exporter of LNG. Royal Dutch Shell’s $12.6 billion Prelude project – the world’s largest floating LNG (FLNG) facility – is also behind schedule. FULL ARTICLE read more

Shell cannot say it was not warned about Prelude FLNG

Warning by Bill Campbell, retired HSE Group Auditor, Shell International: Hydrocarbon leaks on offshore installations are unavoidable!

The answer to the question, can offshore installations meet a zero tolerance standard for hydrocarbon leaks, is easily answered, they cannot! Keeping hydrocarbons in the box appears beyond the wit of man. 

The support for this rather pessimistic view is based on actual historic data from the North Sea. It should be noted that this key indicator is the number one, the foremost technical integrity measure recorded by the HSE offshore division in the UK. All operators also are required to have it as their top indicator and non-reporting of hydrocarbon leaks is an offence in Law. So there is a degree of confidence in the accuracy of this data.  read more

Shell’s 88 page global transformation plans leaked to John Donovan

Embarrassingly for Shell, as the New York Times has reported this morning, I have a leaked copy of an 88 page Shell internal document setting out proposals for Shell’s global plans generally and in particular for the Netherlands, where several hundred more jobs are going to disappear. Part of a world-wide jobs upheaval at Shell. 

A few days ago, CEO Ben van Beurden, mindful of the prospect of a falling oil price, claimed that Shell “is getting fit for the $40s.” Now we have a detailed insight about the scope of proposed transformational change at Shell deemed essential to achieving that objective. Embarrassingly for Shell, as the New York Times has reported this morning, I have a leaked copy of an 88 page Shell internal document setting out proposals for Shell’s global plans generally and in particular for the Netherlands, where several hundred more jobs are going to disappear. read more

Cheap oil forcing a rethink, says Royal Dutch Shell

  • The Wall Street Journal

Royal Dutch Shell has presented a pessimistic vision for the future of oil, even as the company reported success in generating cash during a prolonged energy downturn. Shell has cut costs and said it was preparing for a world in which crude prices might never regain precrash levels and petroleum demand declined. Shell chief executive Ben van Beurden said the company had a mindset that oil prices would remain “lower forever”. “We have to have projects that are resilient in a world where oil has peaked,” Mr van Beurden told reporters on a conference call discussing the company’s second-quarter financial results. “When it will happen we don’t know, but that it will happen we are certain.” READ MORE read more

LNG possibility lives on, even after death of Pacific NorthWest LNG

And two other large global energy players with regulatory approval from the B.C. and Canadian governments say they are trying to position themselves to be ready to make a decision on building their own billions-of-dollars of mega-projects in northwest B.C. to coincide with increased demand they forecast could kick in by the middle of next decade. Those projects are LNG Canada led by Royal Dutch Shell plc and Kitimat LNG, a 50-50 venture of Chevron and Australian-based Woodside Energy. read more

Shell backs gas export limits

: Resources reporter, Melbourne: 28 July 2017

Royal Dutch Shell chief executive Ben van Beurden has said he is very supportive of Malcolm Turnbull’s moves to impose export restrictions to increase domestic supply on the east coast, where Shell runs the Queensland Curtis LNG project. But the oil major has revealed there have been some unspecified operational problems at QCLNG, which exports coal-seam gas from Gladstone. Speaking on a second-quarter earnings call in London last night, Mr Van Beurden backed the Prime Minister’s intervention in the markets, which gives the government the power to restrict exports from any LNG project that is not a “net contributor” to domestic markets. FULL ARTICLE read more

PRELUDE FLNG is a very risky business

BILL CAMPBELL

Bill Campbell, retired HSE Group Auditor, Shell International, comments on the UPI article “In Australia, Shell signals new era for LNG

For hazardous substances plants Size Matters, it’s crucial.

The size re surface deck area of the Prelude vessel wrt an onshore plant continues to be misstated, purposefully I assume. Even if the total deck of Prelude was used exclusively for the LNG process ignoring area taken up by Accomodation, Turret etc we have total of 3.6 Hectares. On average LNG land plants with equivalent throughputs are 20 times (not four times) on average larger than the 3.6 Hectares provided on the Prelude deck. As an example of this that you can check out easily on the web is that Woodside Energy has allocated 80 Hectares for its onshore Pluto LNG site and facilities or 22.2 times the total area of the Prelude deck. I took up the propaganda on size with Shell Australia a few years ago, they are the regular publisher of these alternative facts, asking them to clarify where in the world was there a LNG plant onshore occupying just 14 Hectares (4 times the Prelude total deck space). read more

Report: Gas could be sidelined by renewables in parts of Australia

By Daniel J. Graeber: 26 July 2017

July 26 (UPI) — With Australia monitoring natural gas demand, a consultant group found gas-fired power could get squeezed out in parts of the country as renewables get cheaper.

FULL ARTICLE

In Australia, Shell signals new era for LNG

In Australia, Shell signals new era for LNG

By Daniel J. Graeber: July 25, 2017

July 25 (UPI) — The arrival of a floating liquefied natural gas facility off the coast of Australia signals a milestone for the region as an energy hub, Royal Dutch Shell said. The company’s Prelude vessel, its first-ever floating platform for LNG, arrived off the coast of Western Australia, after leaving its South Korean shipyard in late June. READ MORE

Shell, SoftBank Weigh Bids for Asia Renewables Firm Worth Up to $5 Bln – Sources

PRELUDE FLNG; A CASE OF ADDING FUEL TO THE FIRE

By Bill Campbell – Retired HSE Group Auditor, Shell International

The physics of fire is readily explained by the simple fire triangle where the constituents needed to be available for fire to begin and persist are a heat source, oxygen and a combustible fuel.

In our industry in 1988 and later in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore India were witnessed catastrophic happenings where an escalating hydrocarbon event could not be curtailed, went out of control and escalated because of the abundance of fuel in massive amounts, mainly gas.

The abundance of fuel on an offshore installation, or on a London Tower building, housing hundreds of people, raises the risk to persons occupying these facilities significantly.  Risk is not just the probability of a fire starting but the potential consequences of that fire should it start and take hold.     read more

More Shell News 12 July 2017

Prelude Article by Business News Western Australia: 12 July 2017 read more

Shell Prelude News

Shell’s floating LNG facility sets sail from South Korea for Australia: Reuters: 29 June 2017

Royal Dutch Shell’s Prelude floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) ship has left a shipyard in South Korea for its destination offshore northwest Australia, the company said on Thursday.

Shell’s Prelude LNG vessel sets sail: The West Australian: 29 June 2017

Tug boats began towing the 488m Prelude out to sea early this morning from Samsung Heavy Industry’s Geoje shipyard, according to a website monitoring vessel movements. read more

Shell News Update 31 May 2017

Shell completes sale of Australian aviation business for $250 mln: Reuters: 31 May 2017

Has completed sale of its Australian Aviation Business to Viva Energy Australia for a total transaction value of approximately $250 million.

Shell Downstream CIO Craig Walker – “We should be scared”: 23 May 2017

Walker very frankly admitted that Shell “should be scared” during our discussion, where he said that one of his biggest fears is having to go and tell his director that he’d lost a billion dollar business because he didn’t foresee a new business model for Shell, enabled by new technologies.

Canadian Oil Sands Brace As Oil Majors Dump Shares: OilPrice.com: 30 May 2017

Royal Dutch Shell and ConocoPhillips struck deals in March to sell Canadian oil assets to two Canada-based producers. In both deals, parts of the consideration for the transactions were shares of the Canadian companies that Shell and ConocoPhillips received. read more

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