Royal Dutch Shell plc .com Rotating Header Image

Posts under ‘OPEC’

The Niger Delta Avengers are back — and they’ve got big oil in their crosshairs




Tom DiChristopher: 26 Oct 2016

The Niger Delta Avengers resumed their campaign of sabotage on Tuesday, potentially kicking off a return to the serial bombings the militant group carried out earlier this year.

Those attacks sent Nigerian crude output to a more than decade-low and deepened an economic crisis in the Western African nation brought on by persistently low oil prices. Analysts say the government has been slow to advance a coherent response, and in the absence of an effective strategy, the conflict will likely escalate, putting Nigeria’s recovery in question and global oil supply at risk.

read more

Survival in the harsh conditions of the oil downturn


By Ed Crooks: October 21, 2016

The mood at the Oil and Money conference in London, the big energy event of the week, was a case of mixed emotions: cheer over signs of a near-term pick-up in the market, and concern over longer-term threats to demand.

The headlines were made on Wednesday by a clash between two of the biggest names in energy: Khalid al-Falih, energy minister of Saudi Arabia, and Rex Tillerson, chief executive of ExxonMobil. In his keynote speech, Mr al-Falih warned of the risk of “a shortage of supply” in future years because of plunging investment in oil production. Speaking minutes later, Mr Tillerson suggested he did not expect a collapse in supplies, because US shale provided “enormous spare capacity” to meet rising demand.

read more

The global market is still awash with crude


By Ed Crooks: 14 October 2016

As the new Nobel prize-winner for literature once put it, something is happening here. The successful IPO this week by a US exploration and production company, Extraction Oil & Gas, was the first in the sector since crude prices started to slide in the summer of 2014. Along with the slide in energy junk bond yields, and signs of a corresponding thaw in E&P junk bond issuance, which has been essentially frozen all year, it is clear evidence that investor confidence in the US oil industry is returning.

read more

Oil From $50 Billion Kashagan Field Starts Flowing to Export



By Nariman Gizitdinov: 14 October 2016

Kashagan, a vast oil field in the Caspian Sea, sent its first crude for export after about 16 years in development and more than $50 billion of investments.

The venture loaded 26,500 metric tons of crude for export into the country’s pipelines, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said in an e-mailed statement. Of that, 7,700 tons was sent to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Reaching stable production will take “some time” as commissioning work continues both offshore and onshore, the ministry said.

The project has been plagued by multiple delays and cost overruns. A 2008 budget estimate of $38 billion jumped to $53 billion by the end of last year as the partners replaced undersea links after sour gas cracked the pipes. The crude from Kashagan is reaching an already saturated market, with prices at less than half the level of 2013 when the project hit a setback. Expectations for the field’s exports even prompted OPEC to flip supply predictions for next year.

read more

FT Energy Source Weekly Briefing

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 12.53.40

By Ed Crooks: October 7, 2016

Two international agreements have dominated the week’s energy news. Both have futures that are still shrouded in uncertainty, but are important landmarks if only because countries with widely diverging interests were able to come together and sign up to a shared course of action.

One was the Paris climate accord, which this week secured support from enough countries to come into force formally next month. The UN said 73 countries and the EU, accounting for more than 55 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, had ratified the agreement, crossing the thresholds set when the accord was adopted last December. More of the 195 countries that agreed the deal then are expected to join it formally in the coming weeks, months and years.

read more

Outlook For Shell Mixed – Caution Ahead




Gary Bourgeault: October 7, 2016


  • Debt load associated with BG Group acquisition still weighs heavily on Shell.
  • With a larger percentage of its business gas, it continues to struggle to sustainably break the $3 barrier.
  • EPS will probably drop by over 40 percent for the year.
  • Nigerian asset sales and risks to other holdings in the nation remain a concern.
  • Dividend could remain at current level if the price of oil and gas maintain a higher bottom.

Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE:RDS.A) has been taking some good steps to prepare for what it believes will be a strong future for LNG demand, as it puts various pieces of its infrastructure in place around the world. It has the goal of continuing to focus primarily on gas as its major product, looking for a time when it sustainably rebounds in price.

The long term prospects for Shell look fairly solid, but it does face some significant headwinds in the short term, including the debt overhang coming from its acquisition of BG Group, downward pressure on earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS), prolonged period of lower natural gas prices, and the loss of revenue from asset sales in Nigeria, along with the risk in the country for other projects it still has there.

read more

Oil: OPEC Finally Agrees And Investor Takeaways


Dividend Income: 5 October 2016


  • OPEC has agreed to put a ceiling on oil production at 32.5 million barrels per day, representing a 900k cut from its current output at 33.4 million.
  • The news supported oil’s rise by nearly 10 percent, and benefits some companies significantly more than others.
  • The author still recommends to stay away from offshore, but upstream producers with lower break even cost could be an attractive investment. Integrated majors’ dividends are also safer than ever.

News Summary

To the surprise of everyone, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Nations (OPEC) has agreed to put a ceiling on oil production at 32.5 million barrels per day, which is significantly less than its current 33.4 million barrels per day of production. The news has helped oil price rally nearly 10% to almost $51.50 per barrel Brent.

In this article, I will try to dissect the news and its effect on integrated majors, upstream producers and offshore producers. Of course, the news benefit some of these companies significantly more than others, which are actually unaffected or evenly negatively affected by the news. Similarly, I will analyze how it will affect the United State Oil ETF (NYSEARCA:USO) and other oil related ETFs going forward.

read more

It’s boring, but Shell’s fat yield will reward patience

Screen Shot 2016-09-07 at 14.28.11


Screen Shot 2016-08-29 at 22.18.50There are clear risks: history suggests the Opec deal to cut oil production and support prices won’t stick; the company still has to prove it can make its huge BG acquisition work; and the dividend is not covered by earnings for this year and barely covered for next.

4 OCTOBER 2016 • 8:28AM

Royal Dutch Shell

This tip won’t win many prizes for originality but patient, longterm income seekers may find it hard to overlook the prospect of a soundly financed company that offers a 7pc dividend yield while interest rates and yields on the safest bonds remain at rock bottom.

There are clear risks: history suggests the Opec deal to cut oil production and support prices won’t stick; the company still has to prove it can make its huge BG acquisition work; and the dividend is not covered by earnings for this year and barely covered for next.

read more

Opinion: OPEC surprises – but will it deliver?


Opinion: OPEC surprises – but will it deliver?

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 13.04.17

Written by Richard Dyson – 03/10/2016 5:00 am

After weeks of speculation, OPEC showed it still has the power to surprise last week with its announcement of an agreement to cut back oil output for the first time in eight years. While short-term celebrations were rife, the question remains: Was the group just calling our bluff that its informal meeting would amount to more of the same, or will something actually be done?

While not expected, the tentative output agreement – to reduce production to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day, down from the current 33.5 million barrels per day – came as welcome news to the oil and gas industry, as many of us presumed that this meeting would follow the usual pattern of producing no tangible results.

read more

Opec’s unclear resolve

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 12.53.40

Opec’s unclear resolve

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 13.04.17

By Ed Crooks, September 30, 2016

After two years of inaction as a strategy, Opec this week decided to do… something. Exactly what it will end up doing has yet to be determined.

When Opec ministers met at a beach resort in Algiers, they agreed a statement setting a target for their oil production that is roughly 250,000-750,000 barrels per day lower than the cartel’s current output. The big missing piece from the deal, though, was how the cartel’s members would share out the cuts needed to reach that target. A “high-level committee” of representatives from member states, supported by the Opec secretariat, will work on recommendations for individual countries’ cuts, which could be confirmed at the next ministerial meeting, in Vienna on November 30.

read more

Oil falls as investors cash in on OPEC deal rally, dollar rises

Screen Shot 2016-08-01 at 21.19.23

Oil falls as investors cash in on OPEC deal rally, dollar rises

Screen Shot 2016-08-01 at 14.11.08

The United States, now the world’s biggest oil producer but not a member of OPEC, said it had little faith in the deal leading to higher prices in the long term. Amos Hochstein, the U.S. energy envoy, said in a Reuters interview the deal will either lead to higher U.S. production and trigger another price fall or allow U.S. producers to expand market share.

By Karolin Schaps | LONDON

Oil prices fell on Friday on a stronger dollar and as investors cashed in on a 6-percent rise in just one day after OPEC members agreed to reduce output for the first time in eight years to stifle a two-year price slide.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down $1.03 at $48.21 a barrel by 1006 GMT, but still 4.5 percent higher than before the OPEC agreement on Wednesday.

U.S. crude CLc1 was down 66 cents at $47.17 a barrel, around 5 percent higher than before the OPEC announcement.

read more

Oil prices continue to fall as doubts over OPEC agreement build

MARKETWATCHOil prices continue to fall as doubts over OPEC agreement build

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 13.04.17

By Jenny W. Hsu and Sara McFarlane

Published: Sept 30, 2016 6:49 a.m. ET

Oil futures fell Friday as investors cashed in their recent gains and skepticism grew over a tentative agreement to cut production among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.


OPEC decision on daily oil output freeze to have no impact on Shell’s strategy Zoom

OPEC decision on daily oil output freeze to have no impact on Shell’s strategy

Screen Shot 2016-07-15 at 21.18.23

September 29, 2016

Baku-APA. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) agreement to freeze daily oil output will not affect Royal Dutch Shell ‘s current strategy, a spokesman for one of the world’s largest oil companies told Sputnik on Thursday, APA reports quoting Sputnik.

On Wednesday, OPEC oil producing countries agreed a preliminary deal on the sidelines of an international energy forum in Algiers, Algeria. The output ceiling was set at 32.5-33 million barrels a day for the whole cartel. 

read more

Is OPEC’s Output Deal A Game Changer For Royal Dutch Shell And BP?

Is OPEC’s Output Deal A Game Changer For Royal Dutch Shell And BP?

Royston Wild: Sept 29, 2016

Investors in the fossil fuel sector have finally had cause to celebrate this week after OPEC suggested that an output freeze could finally be in the offing.

The idea had initially been tabled at the start of the year as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Venezuela and Russia got around the table. But Iran’s determination to get the pumps ramped back up to pre-sanction levels put the plan firmly on the backburner.

However, with Tehran’s reluctance to take part in a deal now apparently thawing, stock pickers have become more optimistic over the growth outlook for many of the oil industry’s major players.

read more

Iraq’s OPEC revolt shows Saudi-Iran oil deal fragility

Screen Shot 2016-08-04 at 09.29.49

Iraq’s OPEC revolt shows Saudi-Iran oil deal fragility

Screen Shot 2016-07-18 at 13.38.06

By Rania El Gamal and Alex Lawler | ALGIERS

For years, debates in the OPEC conference room were dominated by clashes between top producer Saudi Arabia and arch-rival Iran.

But as the two managed to find a rare compromise on Wednesday – with Riyadh softening its stance towards Tehran – a third OPEC superpower emerged.

Iraq overtook Iran as the group’s second-largest producer several years ago but kept its OPEC agenda fairly low-profile. On Wednesday, Baghdad finally made its presence felt.

read more

Shares in oil giants BP and Shell surge on production cut deal

Shares in oil giants BP and Shell surge on production cut deal

The agreement by OPEC countries boosts hopes for a sector which has seen mass job cuts, but could push up prices at the pump.

Screen Shot 2016-08-04 at 14.47.05

Thursday 29 September 2016

Shares in Royal Dutch Shell and BP have surged after top oil producing countries agreed to cut production for the first time in eight years.

Shell climbed 6% and BP was up 4% following the decision by OPEC – with other commodity firms also performing strongly.

The stocks helped the FTSE 100 Index turn 1% higher, with improvements also seen in French and German markets, following an upturn for Asian shares overnight.

OPEC’s agreement on Wednesday helped the price of a barrel of Brent crude climb above $49 overnight, before slipping back slightly.

read more

Oil plumbs depths as Opec hope fades



All eyes are on Saudi Arabia and other big producers as the oil price hovers around $40 a barrel

Oil prices could be headed back below $40 a barrel, with a deal this week between the world’s top exporters looking increasingly remote.

Opec meets for three-day talks in Algiers tomorrow, with the cartel still divided on its response to oil’s price slump.

Brent crude fell sharply to under $46 a barrel on Friday, as hopes of a production cut faded. Analysts at Citigroup said the price could slide below $40 unless big producers led by Saudi Arabia can hammer out a deal to pump less crude. Forecasters at Macquarie Group, meanwhile, said that even if a production freeze can…

read more

Do what I say

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 12.53.40

Screen Shot 2016-07-15 at 21.18.23

By Ed Crooks: September 23, 2016

One of the most reliable features of negotiations over oil production is a divergence between what countries say and what they do.

Three weeks ago, Russia and Saudi Arabia were discussing co-operation to stabilise the oil market. This week there was talk of a year-long agreement between Russia and Opec to cap production. At the same time, however, Russia has been stepping up its drilling in the mature fields of western Siberia, taking its oil output to new record highs. Its production is forecast by Goldman Sachs to grow a further 590,000 barrels per day over the next three years.

read more

5 Oil Majors, One Big Nigeria Lawsuit


September 20, 2016, 4:48 P.M. ET

By Dimitra DeFotis

Allegedly illegal Nigerian oil exports valued at $12.7 billion are at the heart of a lawsuit the country has filed against units of Chevron (CVX), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA), Total (TOT) ENI (E) and Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR).

The case points to outsiders’ shipments to the United States between 2011 and 2014, but is likely to expose domestic corruption as well. Militants have crippled Nigeria’s oil production this year, a recurring theme over recent decades. Lagos hearings, which begin next week, come as the country struggles with the affects of policy stagnation, currency devaluation, inflation and low oil revenue.

read more

What Is Really Pushing Oil Prices Down?


Screen Shot 2016-08-19 at 09.23.27


Gaurav Agnihotri: 19 Sept 2016

Oil prices fell last week after the IEA and OPEC reported in their respective oil market reports that the supply-demand rebalancing of oil will take longer than market expectations. The WTI (WTI) and Brent were down by almost 2% and were trading at $43.3 and $45.77 at the time of writing this article. Even the U.S rig count increased for the 12th week in a row. Oil prices are going down as markets have realized that global oil supplies are only going to increase in the coming time. “It really looks similar to the period of the early 1990s, when we were at $20 oil. Is $45 to $50 the new $20? I am not ready to say we are in this new equilibrium environment, but it sure does feel like we’re moving in that direction,” said the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Jeff Curie. It must be noted that investment firms such as Goldman Sachs have started lowering their 2017 forecast for oil prices. Let us look at those factors that are putting downward pressure on oil.

read more

Oil drops below $46


By Ed Crooks: September 16, 2016

The more positive mood in crude prices last week always looked fragile, based as it was on nebulous talk about a possible Opec production freeze and volatile US data that were heavily influenced by storm Hermine at the beginning of the month.

That vulnerability was exposed this week. Brent crude, which briefly hit $50 per barrel on September 8, dropped below $46 on Friday.

As prices fell, analysts took differing views on the outlook. Bloomberg focused on the chance of a rebound, as markets started to focus on the growing risk of shortages. On the other hand, the FT’s Neil Hume pointed out that there was still more crude production capacity set to come on stream as a result of the investment binge of 2011-14 – not least the much delayed Kashagan field in Kazakhstan – meaning that prices could remain depressed in the short term.

read more

FTSE 100 edges higher but BP and Shell slip on oil glut fears


Nick FletcherTuesday 13 September 2016 11.18 BST

Oil shares are among the biggest fallers after crude prices slid further in the wake of a downbeat report from the International Energy Agency. The agency said the oil market would be oversupplied until at least the first six months of 2017, given a sharp slowdown in demand and rising stocks. A month ago it predicted suppy and demand would be broadly in balance for the rest of the year, and inventories would fall sharply.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said:

The IEA has joined OPEC in pouring more cold water on the oil price this morning. After OPEC flipped its prediction of dwindling non-OPEC supply in 2017, instead warning that it was set to rise due to a major new oilfield in Kazakhstan coming online, the IEA has issued a stark warning that the pickup in demand seen in the first half of the year has completely evaporated. It has cut its demand forecasts for the second half and the whole of 2017 and is now predicting the glut will remain in the global market for the whole of next year. Oil prices are down this morning, although the real capitulation could come towards the end of the month if OPEC and Russia fail to agree a supply freeze

read more

No oil freeze yet

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 12.53.40


Screen Shot 2016-06-20 at 08.25.29By Ed Crooks: September 9, 2016

“Grant me chastity and continence, but not yet,” St Augustine wrote in his Confessions, remembering his prayer as an adolescent. Opec members are taking much the same attitude to restraining their oil production.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s two largest crude producers, said on Monday they would co-operate on ways to stabilise oil prices, but stopped short of agreeing to freeze production. There will be a working group to study ways to curb price volatility, and co-operation on production curbs was held out as a possibility. But Khalid al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, was clearly in no hurry to make any commitments.

read more

Why I’m expecting Royal Dutch Shell plc and BP plc to plummet!

Screen Shot 2016-08-17 at 13.35.03

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 18.13.19

By Royston WildThe Motley Fool: Friday, 2 September, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 18.15.08

Investor appetite for the oil segment has taken a knock in recent weeks as fears of a prolonged supply glut have weighed.

British majors Royal Dutch Shell(LSE: RDSB) and BP(LSE: BP) have seen their share prices slip 10% and 7% respectively during the past six weeks, for example. And I believe a sharper retracement could be just around the corner.

Stocks keep surging

Broker predictions that the oil market is set to balance later this year are being put under increased scrutiny as already-plentiful stockpiles continue to build.

read more

Speculation rises over Opec output freeze

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 12.53.40

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 13.05.32

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 13.04.17

By Ed Crooks: September 2, 2016

Over the past month, the big stories in the oil market have been speculation about a possible production freeze from Opec, and the reality of rising activity in the US shale industry.

The rumours of Opec action have followed the pattern that has become wearingly familiar over the past couple of years, since the landmark meeting in November 2014 confirming that Saudi Arabia was not prepared to cut production to try to stabilise prices.

As the meeting – in this case, a gathering on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algiers on September 26-28 – grows nearer, suggestions that a freeze will be discussed grow louder. Venezuela, which has the most urgent need for a higher oil price, sounds the most enthusiastic about curbing production. Other countries make supportive statements and agree to meet, without promising any action themselves.

read more

Why I’ve sold all of my Shell and BP shares, by manager of £543 million

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 09.36.01

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 09.34.45

Screen Shot 2016-07-29 at 16.46.22Bailey concluded his comments with the remark that the Shell dividend is uncovered. That means the company is not generating enough cash to pay the dividend itself.

David Thorpe 25 Aug 2016

Stephen Bailey, who runs the Liontrust Macro Equity Income fund has revealed the reasons why he has sold all of his shares in Shell and BP.

He began selling his Shell shares about a year ago, and completed the sale, ‘during the month of August’ 2016.

Bailey commented, ‘A year ago we had 9 per cent of the fund in oil, now it’s zero. You have to look at the macro view on this, and be very concerned about the oil market. The big suppliers in the market can no longer be controlled by OPEC, the Saudis recently announced an initiative called project 2030 which is aimed at boosting other areas of the economy, and they are doing that because they expect to receive less revenue from fossil fuels in the future.’  

read more

Can OPEC save BP plc and Royal Dutch Shell plc?

Screen Shot 2016-08-17 at 13.35.03

Screen Shot 2016-08-25 at 07.25.27

By Ian Pierce – Thursday, 25 August, 2016

Oil majors must long for the halcyon days when a sustained period of low crude prices could be expected to send OPEC riding to the rescue with sweeping production cuts and a promise to boost global prices. Now, two years into a global supply glut that shows few signs of lifting, do oil majors need an OPEC to finally take action?

BP (LSE: BP) wouldn’t say no to the help. Interim results released last month saw underlying replacement cost profits, its preferred metric of profitability, slump 67% year-on-year. Add in a $2bn statutory loss for the period and net debt leaping to $30.9bn and worries have rightly begun to proliferate that dividends will be slashed sooner rather than later.

read more

Nigeria recorded 1,600 cases of pipeline vandalism in eight months – Kachikwu

Screen Shot 2016-08-19 at 09.11.06

By Daily Post Staff on August 18, 2016

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr Ibe Kachikwu, says Nigeria has recorded 1,600 cases of pipeline vandalism since January.

Kachikwu made the disclosure at the 2016 Annual Conference of National Association of Energy Correspondents with the theme, “Low Oil Price: Impact and the Way Forward”, in Lagos on Thursday.

The minister also said that the country recorded over 3,000 pipeline vandalism cases from 2010 to 2015.

He said that the impact of attacks on oil and gas pipelines was that there was no money to fund the 2016 budget.

read more

Exclusive: Iraq, oil companies agree to restart investment, boost output

Screen Shot 2016-08-04 at 09.29.49

Exclusive: Iraq, oil companies agree to restart investment, boost output


Iraq has reached agreement with BP, Shell and Lukoil to restart stalled investment in oil fields the firms are developing, allowing projects that were halted this year to resume and crude production to increase in 2017, Iraqi oil officials said.

The agreements, reached in July and August, effectively delay to the second half of the year projects that the three companies had planned to carry out in the first half, which had been suspended because of low oil prices.

read more

Shell Calls Force Majeure on Nigeria Gas Supply After Leak

Screen Shot 2016-08-10 at 14.41.11

Screen Shot 2016-08-10 at 14.40.01

Screen Shot 2016-08-05 at 09.29.20By Paul Burkhardt and Elisha Bala-Gbogbo: August 10, 2016

Royal Dutch Shell Plc said its local unit has declared force majeure on supplies to a liquefied natural gas plant in Nigeria because of a leak in a pipeline as the OPEC member suffers from militant attacks on energy infrastructure that are hurting exports.

“The pipeline has been shut down for a joint investigation visit into the cause of the leak and repairs,” Natasha Obank, a Shell spokeswoman, said in a statement. The leak occurred on the Eastern Gas Gathering System, or EGGS-1, pipeline which supplies the bulk of Shell’s gas to the Nigeria LNG plant on Bonny Island. Some supply continues through other pipelines, Shell said.

read more

US oil reserves surpass those of Saudi Arabia and Russia

Screen Shot 2016-06-07 at 10.16.57

Screen Shot 2016-07-05 at 07.53.59

Screen Shot 2016-07-05 at 07.51.31

Anjli Raval, Oil and Gas Correspondent: July 4, 2016

The US holds more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia and Russia, the first time it has surpassed those held by the world’s biggest exporting nations, according to a new study.

The US shale boom was a factor behind the recent oil price collapse that toppled the Brent crude benchmark from a mid-2014 high of $115 a barrel to below $30 earlier this year.


Oil Is Still Heading to $10 a Barrel

Screen Shot 2016-06-07 at 10.26.02

Screen Shot 2016-07-01 at 21.54.44

Screen Shot 2016-05-30 at 15.37.19

By A. Gary Shilling:JUNE 28, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

Back in February 2015, the price of West Texas Intermediate stood at about $52 per barrel, half of its 2014 peak. I argued then that a renewed decline was coming that could drive it below $20, a scenario regarded by oil bulls as unthinkable. But prices did fall further, dropping all the way to a low of $26 in February. Since then, crude rallied to spend several weeks flirting with $50 per barrel, a level not seen since last year. But it won’t last; I’m sticking to my call for prices to decline anew to $10 to $20 per barrel.

read more

Royal Dutch Shell’s Recovery Will Strengthen The Rally

Screen Shot 2016-06-30 at 11.09.44

Jun. 29, 2016 4:22 PM ET|


Royal Dutch Shell’s upstream business has struggled on account of lower oil price realizations, but this is about to change going forward.

With Brent now hovering around $50, the average price of oil has improved in the second quarter and this will help Shell improve its realizations in the upstream.

Shell’s upstream performance could improve further as higher inventory drawdown on the back of weakening production and stronger demand will lead to higher prices.

read more

Goldman Sachs Says Oil Isn’t Recovering

Screen Shot 2016-06-23 at 08.53.40

Screen Shot 2016-06-24 at 22.10.02

Screen Shot 2016-06-24 at 22.10.49

By James Burgess – Jun 15, 2016

Goldman Sachs has rejected analysts’ opinions that the global oil market is recovering, noting that while it expects a “modest” deficit in the coming months based on the slight rebound in oil prices, the market will again be in a state of surplus by early next year.

It may seem as if oil is recovering on the back of supply disruptions that have helped to chip away at the global glut and push prices close to $50, but Goldman says that in the best-case scenario this isn’t a rebound—it’s just the first signs of one.

read more

Royal Dutch Shell Set to sink?

Screen Shot 2016-05-25 at 12.21.03

Screen Shot 2016-06-11 at 12.24.42

By Royston Wild – Saturday, 11 June, 2016

The possibility of protracted earnings pain also makes Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) a gamble too far, in my opinion.

At face value, charging oil prices may be at odds with my bearish take on the state of the market. Indeed, the Brent index surged above the $52 per barrel marker for the first time since October this week, helped by supply disruptions in Nigeria and a weaker US dollar.

However, the long-term outlook for crude values remains on thin ice, in my opinion. Production from OPEC and Russia continues to blast higher, while patchy economic growth means that bloated inventory levels are likely to persist, a situation that could send black gold prices sinking again.

read more

Bad news for fossil fuels

Screen Shot 2016-06-10 at 16.17.14

By Ed Crooks: June 10. 2016

Two of the most widely respected energy analysts – BP’s economics team and the International Energy Agency – published reports this week, and both brought bad news for fossil fuel producers. They differed, however, in the focus of their gloomy perspectives. For BP, publishing its 65th annual Statistical Review of World Energy, it was coal that came off worst. As Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist, put it in his presentation, “2015 was undoubtedly an annus horribilis for coal”. The shift to natural gas for power generation in the US gathered pace, and there was a second consecutive year of declining consumption in China.

read more

The death of Opec?

Screen Shot 2016-05-30 at 19.39.33

Screen Shot 2016-05-30 at 19.40.54

Screen Shot 2016-05-30 at 15.37.19

By Ed Crooks: 27 May 2016

“Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.” That widely-misattributed line, first published by the novelist Rita Mae Brown, has apparently been taken to heart in the oil market at last.

After a succession of Opec meetings that were preceded by fevered speculation about action to support crude prices – mostly recently the much-discussed plan for a production “freeze” that fell apart in Doha in April – no-one has any great expectations for the ministerial gathering in Vienna next week. “The freeze is finished,” one Opec delegate said.

read more

Shell eyes $700 million exit from Gabon – sources

Screen Shot 2016-04-21 at 18.43.47

By Freya Berry and Ron Bousso

LONDON (Reuters) – Royal Dutch Shell <RDSa.L> is working on selling out of its onshore assets in Gabon, according to two sources familiar with the matter, seeking to refocus its African presence.

Bids are due in June for the fields, which one source estimated could be worth around $700 million (488.55 million pound). However the second person said that price indications were currently below Shell’s expectations and that no sale may occur.

“Shell continuously evaluates opportunities for our global portfolio in line with our business strategy,” a company spokesman said on Thursday.

read more

Botched Doha deal undermines OPEC credibility, oil prices tumble

Screen Shot 2016-04-18 at 22.26.03


By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, April 18 (Reuters) – Oil prices tumbled on Monday after a meeting by major exporters in Qatar collapsed without an agreement to freeze output, leaving the credibility of the OPEC producer cartel in tatters and the world awash with unwanted fuel.

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran were blamed for the failure, which revived industry fears that major government-controlled producers will increase their battle for market share by offering ever-steeper discounts.

read more

Major Oil Exporters Fail to Agree on Production Freeze

Screen Shot 2016-04-18 at 08.44.58

By STANLEY REED and ANDREW E. KRAMERA version of this article appears in print on April 18, 2016, on page B1 of the New York edition

DOHA, Qatar — Officials from 18 oil-producing nations failed on Sunday to reach a deal to freeze oil production at current levels.

The meeting of officials, representing most of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as Russia, had been intended to calm the markets and convince them that the two leading oil exporters, Russia and Saudi Arabia, were cooperating. But with officials coming up short on Sunday, the meeting may end up being a blow to confidence that could send oil prices tumbling.

read more

Eyes on Doha

Screen Shot 2016-04-15 at 16.46.22

By Ed Crooks: April 15, 2016

All eyes in the oil market this weekend will be on Sunday’s meeting in Doha, which will bring together leading producers including Russia and most – although perhaps not all – of the members of Opec. Expectations that the countries will agree to freeze production, encouraged this week by statements from Russian and Iraqi representatives, have helped drive Brent crude prices up more than 60 per cent from about $27 per barrel in January to around $44 today.  The heads of some of the world’s largest trading houses have concluded that for oil producers, the worst is probably now over.

read more

Why I Wouldn’t Touch Royal Dutch Shell Plc & Tullow Oil plc With A Bargepole!

Screen Shot 2016-03-24 at 14.55.55

Screen Shot 2016-04-08 at 09.35.12

Screen Shot 2016-03-15 at 10.34.57By The Motley Fool  Apr 8, 2016

Investor appetite for the fossil fuel sector has died down in recent days amid a fresh dip in crude prices.

After moving back above the $40 per barrel marker last month, Brent values have subsequently run out of steam as enduring fears over supply/demand imbalances have come to the fore again.

Oil producers like Shell (LSE: RDSB) and Tullow Oil(LSE: TLW) have been carried higher following Brent’s surge from January’s multi-year lows of $27.67. But with ‘black gold’ back on the defensive, I reckon oil companies big and small are back in danger of a huge share price reversal.

read more

Sideways moves

Screen Shot 2016-04-03 at 17.07.11

By Ed Crooks: April 1, 2016

Oil prices went sideways all week, with Brent crude edging up above $40 on Thursday.  Hedge funds have made record bets on rising crude prices, but everyone is still watching prospects for the scheduled meeting of Opec and non-Opec oil producers in Doha, Qatar on April 17. Qatar’s oil minister said 12 countries had so far agreed to attend, including most Opec members and Russia. Reuters provided a useful factbox on the countries that could be present at the meeting.  Ecuador is one of the Opec members trying to persuade non-member countries to join in a commitment to freeze production.

read more

Is It Finally Time To Give Up On Royal Dutch Shell Plc?

Screen Shot 2016-03-24 at 15.37.47

By Royston Wild – Thursday, 24 March, 2016

To suggest the game is up at Shell (LSE: RDSB) could be considered ludicrous given the investor stampede of recent weeks.

The fossil fuel giant has seen its share price explode 30% in the past two months, moving in lockstep with the Brent benchmark’s surge back above the $40 per barrel milestone.

But with data surrounding the oil sector still worsening, I see little reason for crude’s recent march higher, leaving Shell’s share price in danger of a massive reversal.

read more

Iraq Exports First Natural Gas Shipment in Its History

Screen Shot 2016-03-20 at 15.56.45


BAGHDAD — Iraq on Sunday exported the first shipment of natural gas in its history, a key development for the OPEC member struggling to feed a cash-strapped economy amid an expensive fight against the Islamic State group.

The move revives a long-sought ambition by Iraq to be a gas exporter, thanks to a joint venture with Anglo-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Japan’s Mitsubishi Corp. Iraq first planned to begin exporting gas in the late 1970s, but that timeline was delayed by the Iraq-Iran war when Iraqi export ports were bombed.

read more

Better news for oil

Screen Shot 2016-02-05 at 18.55.00

Screen Shot 2016-03-18 at 18.05.43

Screen Shot 2016-03-16 at 22.36.32By Ed Crooks: Friday 18 March 2016

Oil continued to creep up this week with Brent going past $42 per barrel, its highest level since early December. Crude was a beneficiary of the wider upturn in markets, which pushed the S&P 500 index briefly back up above its level at the start of the year. The positive correlation between share prices and oil prices seems to be alive and well.

Suggestions that the US Federal Reserve is in no hurry to raise interest rates gave a boost to crude and other markets. Oil was also helped by reports that Opec ministers had at last agreed to hold a meeting with leading non-Opec producers such as Russia, in an attempt to make some progress with their much-discussed, little-implemented production freeze.

read more

Is Royal Dutch Shell Plc In Danger Of A Colossal Correction?

Screen Shot 2016-03-17 at 22.23.03

Screen Shot 2016-03-17 at 22.24.03

Screen Shot 2016-02-17 at 08.47.47By Royston Wild – Thursday, 17 March, 2016

Shares across the mining and energy sectors have leapt broadly higher in recent weeks thanks to a robust recovery in commodity prices.

Fossil fuel leviathan Shell (LSE: RDSB) has been one of these beneficiaries. Since striking a 12-year trough of 1,277p per share back in January, the stock has leapt 33% to claw back above the 1,700p marker just this week.

Shell’s resurgence has been underpinned by a bounceback in the oil price. The Brent benchmark reclaimed the $40 per barrel marker earlier this month,  up from the multi-year lows of $27.67 hit at the start of 2016.

read more

How Saudi Arabia Turned Its Greatest Weapon on Itself

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 12.06.13

By ANDREW SCOTT COOPER: A version of this op-ed appears in print on March 13, 2016

FOR the past half-century, the world economy has been held hostage by just one country: the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Vast petroleum reserves and untapped production allowed the kingdom to play an outsize role as swing producer, filling or draining the global system at will.

The 1973-74 oil embargo was the first demonstration that the House of Saud was willing to weaponize the oil markets. In October 1973, a coalition of Arab states led by Saudi Arabia abruptly halted oil shipments in retaliation for America’s support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The price of a barrel of oil quickly quadrupled; the resulting shock to the oil-dependent economies of the West led to a sharp rise in the cost of living, mass unemployment and growing social discontent.

read more

Oil’s upwards rally

Screen Shot 2016-02-05 at 18.55.00

Screen Shot 2016-03-11 at 15.51.14

Screen Shot 2016-03-11 at 15.54.22

By Ed Crooks: 11 March 2016

Oil this week continued its recent rally, with Brent crude clinging on above $40, but there was speculation that most of the gains of the past two months could be undone if Opec members and Russia failed to finalise their earlier conditional agreement to freeze production.

Reuters reported Opec sources as saying that a suggested meeting in Moscow on March 20 to confirm the deal was unlikely to take place. The critical factor is Iran; other countries say they will not meet to discuss joining the freeze unless Tehran agrees to sign up for it too. President Hassan Rouhani’s chief of staff told a conference in London that his country wanted to increase exports to regain its pre-sanctions market share before it would start talking about cuts. The same official, Mohammad Nahavandian, also sought to reassure international companies that the country would soon unveil new and improved contracts for investors in its oil and gas industry, even though the issue has raised concerns about attempts by foreign businesses to “loot Iran’s natural resources”.

read more

Another Oil Crash Is Coming, and There May Be No Recovery

Screen Shot 2016-02-24 at 18.16.47

Tom Randall: 24 FEB 2016

It’s time for oil investors to start taking electric cars seriously.

In the next two years, Tesla and Chevy plan to start selling electric cars with a range of more than 200 miles priced in the $30,000 range. Ford is investing billions, Volkswagen is investing billions, and Nissan and BMW are investing billions. Nearly every major carmaker—as well as Apple and Google—is working on the next generation of plug-in cars.

This is a problem for oil markets. OPEC still contends that electric vehicles will make up just 1 percent of global car sales in 2040. Exxon’s forecast is similarly dismissive. 

read more

%d bloggers like this: