Posts under ‘Exxon Mobil’

By Eduard Gismatullin – Feb 2, 2012 8:02 AM GMT

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), Europe’s biggest oil company, expects to raise its dividend this year for the first time since 2009 as new projects generate more cash.

Shell plans net capital investment of $30 billion, with cashflow from operations in 2012-2015 expected to be as much as 50 percent higher than in the 2008 to 2011 period.

Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser said growth will be driven by more than 60 new projects, unlocking potential resources of more than 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent. That’s on top of 14 projects started in 2009-11, including Qatar’s Pearl gas-to-liquids venture.

“Our improving financial position creates an opportunity to increase both our dividends and investment levels,” Voser said today in a statement.

Net income fell to $6.5 billion in the fourth quarter from $6.79 billion a year earlier, The Hague-based Shell said. Excluding one-time items and inventory changes, profit missed analyst estimates.

Shell is the first of Europe’s biggest oil companies to report earnings. It will be followed by BP Plc on Feb. 7 and Total SA on Feb. 10. Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest energy company by market value, reported fourth-quarter sales that fell short of analysts’ estimates earlier this week.

Shell posted adjusted earnings of $4.8 billion, compared with the $5.2 billion median estimate of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

‘Substantial Undershoot’

“The overall result represents a substantial undershoot against a consensus which just three weeks ago was above $7 billion,” said Stuart Joyner, an analyst at Investec Bank Plc.

U.K. front-month natural gas prices are down about 20 percent since reaching a 2011 high of 67.80 pence per therm on Nov. 7. Milder weather in Europe and maintenance curbed Shell’s production by about 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent in the quarter, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

Shell will increase production to about 4 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2017-2018. Last March, it said daily output would rise to 3.5 million barrels this year and 3.7 million barrels by 2014.

Output fell 5.5 percent to 3.305 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period.

Profit was also curbed by maintenance at rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. Shell shut the Bonga field in Nigeria after an offshore oil spill, the nation’s worst in more than a decade. A fire disrupted shipments from Shell’s Pulau Bukom plant in Singapore, the company’s biggest.

Shell made a loss of $278 million from its refining and marketing operations, compared with a profit of $482 million a year earlier. Crude-processing fell 17 percent as sales dropped.

Refining margins from processing oil into fuels such as gasoline and diesel on the U.S. Gulf coast fell 22 percent to $7.16 a barrel in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to BP Plc data.

Of the 31 analysts that cover Shell, 21 recommend buying the shares, nine have ‘hold’ ratings, and one advises investors to sell the stock.

Shell plans to increase the dividend by 2.4 percent to 43 cents in the first quarter from 42 cents announced in the fourth quarter.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eduard Gismatullin in London at egismatullin@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Will Kennedy at wkennedy3@bloomberg.net

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Gazprom Expansion of Sakhalin-2 LNG Plant May Cost $7 Billion

January 30, 2012, 5:20 AM EST

By Jake Rudnitsky

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) — OAO Gazprom and its partners in the Sakhalin-2 project may decide on expanding their liquefied natural gas plant this year, to add supplies by 2018, said Andrey Galaev, the venture’s chief executive officer.

An expansion may cost $5 billion to $7 billion based on preliminary estimates, Galaev told reporters today in Moscow. Depending on changes in oil and gas prices, the construction cost may drop as low as $3 billion or climb as high as $8 billion, he said.

A decision should be made this year to reach a window for supplies in 2016 to 2018, before global LNG production capacity rises, according to Galaev.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc holds 27.5 percent of the project after agreeing to cede control of Russia’s first LNG plant to Gazprom in 2006. Mitsui & Co. has 12.5 percent and Mitsubishi Corp. owns 10 percent.

–Editors: Torrey Clark, Stephen Cunningham

To contact the reporter on this story: Jake Rudnitsky in Moscow at jrudnitsky@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net

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Putin call to ‘cut Gazprom stake’

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has called for the government to reduce its stake in state-owned companies, including gas monopoly Gazprom, according to a report.

Steve Marshall and newswires 30 January 2012 13:41 GMT

Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Sergey Shmatko said all outstanding issues with production sharing contracts signed with companies such as ExxonMobil and Shell on Sakhalin projects in the country’s far east have now been resolved.

The PSAs were signed in the 1990s but Russia subsequently backpedalled as it felt the terms were too favourable to foreign players and sought to renationalize its oil and gas sector.

Shell was forced to relinquish control of the Sakhalin 2 project to state-owned Gazprom in 2007, while Russian officials have threatened to revoke ExxonMobil’s operator status on Sakhalin 1 over the past two years.

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The world’s largest oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc face a dilemma: whether the potential of a virgin basin outweighs the risk of a worsening international dispute.

January 25, 2012, 7:20 AM EST

By Brian Swint

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) — Thirty years after Margaret Thatcher fought a 74-day war with Argentina over the Falkland Islands, the prospect of an oil boom is reviving tensions.

Oil explorers are targeting 8.3 billion barrels in the waters around the islands this year, three times the U.K.’s reserves. Borders & Southern Petroleum Plc will drill the Stebbing prospect next month, one of three Falkland wells that Morgan Stanley ranks among the world’s top 15 offshore prospects this year. Meanwhile, Rockhopper Exploration Plc is seeking $2 billion from a larger oil company to develop the Sea Lion field, the islands’ first economically viable oil find.

“The area is underexplored and highly prospective,” said New York-based Morgan Stanley analyst Evan Calio. “These could be like the high-impact wells in Ghana and Brazil a few years ago that opened up a whole host of basins.”

A major drilling success will further raise the political temperature as Argentina maintains its claim over the U.K’s South Atlantic territory, 300 miles (483 kilometers) from the Latin American coast. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner said Britain is taking her country’s resources, while Thatcher’s successor David Cameron yesterday accused Argentina of a “colonialist” attitude that didn’t account for islanders’ rights.

Cameron has approved contingency plans to bolster U.K. troops on the islands, and Prince William, a search and rescue pilot and the second in line to the British throne, may spend six weeks there this year, the Times of London reported today.

Not Negotiable

“We want to have a full and productive relationship with Argentina,” said Foreign Office spokeswoman Sophie Benger in an e-mailed response to questions. “Whilst the sovereignty of the Falklands is not up for negotiation, there is still much we can do together.”

The world’s largest oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc face a dilemma: whether the potential of a virgin basin outweighs the risk of a worsening international dispute. While producers with interests in Argentina, such as BP Plc, may be put off, others will want to participate, said Tim Bushell, chief executive officer of Falkland Oil & Gas Ltd., who’s looking for drilling partners.

“Big oil companies are used to dealing with political risks, and bigger ones than some saber rattling by Argentina,” Bushell said in a telephone interview, declining to name the companies he’s talking to. “For every BP, there are other major companies that don’t have an interest in Argentina.”

Shares Rise

Falkland Oil & Gas rose as much as 5.8 percent in London and traded at 49.25 pence as of 1:07 p.m. Rockhopper climbed 4 percent to 329.25 pence.

The Falkland Island government, which manages the territory’s mineral rights for the 2,955 islanders, says the big producers are interested and talking to the companies already active in the region. Of the five U.K.-based explorers that have drilled or plan wells, the largest, Rockhopper, has a market value of 899 million pounds ($1.4 billion).

“The Falklands is at a stage where a big company can take a large share in what could be a big oil province,” said Stephen Luxton, the Falkland Islands’ director of mineral resources. “There is an active program of marketing by the companies here. There are discussions going on, though we can’t name names.”

Falkland Oil & Gas plans to drill the Loligo prospect later this year, a well targeting 4.7 billion barrels of oil. Named after a Patagonian squid, it’s the second-most prospective well planned worldwide this year after one in Namibia, according to Morgan Stanley. The company’s Darwin prospect will follow and ranks sixth on the U.S. bank’s list.

Darwin, Stebbing

Borders & Southern will start drilling the Darwin prospect by the end of January, which seismic surveys suggest may hold as much as 760 million barrels of oil and 3 trillion cubic feet of gas. Stebbing, the target of the company’s second well, may hold as much as 1.2 billion barrels.

Together, the four wells planned for the Falklands this year are searching for about 8.3 billion barrels of oil. The Jubilee field, which was discovered in 2007, propelled Ghana into one of the world’s top 50 oil states. Brazil’s Lula field, drilled in 2006, holds an estimated 6.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

“There could be significant volumes down there and it would open up a new hydrocarbon province,” Borders & Southern CEO Howard Obee said in an interview. If the first two wells are successful, “we’d like to do a big drilling program, not only to appraise what we’d find but also drill up additional prospects. To do that, we’d need quite a bit of money.”

Selling Stakes

While the company will probably be able to sell more shares to determine the size of a discovery in this campaign, it may have to sell stakes in prospects to develop them, said Tracy Mackenzie, an analyst at broker Brewin Dolphin in Edinburgh. Borders & Southern holds a 100 percent interest in its fields.

Rockhopper says its Sea Lion discovery, made in 2010 and which may have more than 400 million barrels of recoverable oil, is commercial and will be developed. Chairman Pierre Jungels said last month that the company is showing drilling data to potential partners. The company this month ended a 10-well campaign that lasted two years. It has $100 million in cash after raising 46.5 million pounds ($72 million) in a share placing in October.

That’s just a fraction of the $2 billion the company reckons it will need to get the oil to market. Developers will have to build a floating production and storage unit to load the crude onto tankers. Cairn Energy Plc, Premier Oil Plc and Noble Corp. may be interested in investing, Bank of America Corp. analyst Alejandro Demichelis wrote in a Jan. 16 note.

Colorful Penguins

Spokesmen for BP, Shell, Premier and Cairn declined to comment on whether they’re interested in investing in the Falklands. Exxon and Noble Energy didn’t respond to e-mailed requests for comment.

All the supplies will probably have to come from Europe, about 8,000 miles away. The Falklands consist of two large islands and more than 700 smaller ones, home to the colorful penguins that give Rockhopper its name.

Argentina maintains that its sovereignty over the islands was interrupted in 1833, when British forces occupied the Malvinas Islands, expelling the Argentine population, an act to which the people and government of Argentina never consented. Thatcher sent a task force to retake the islands after Argentina’s military dictatorship invaded the territory on April 2, 1982.

Risk of Failure

Earlier drilling campaigns show the risk of failure in unproven oil provinces. Shell drilled on the northern side of the islands in the 1990s and found traces of oil before abandoning the prospect in 1998 as crude prices fell to around $10 a barrel. Interest in the region revived as oil prices rose higher than $100 a barrel, though Shell had disposed of its acreage.

Desire Petroleum Plc, which has licenses adjacent to Rockhopper’s, drilled six dry wells in a failed campaign that ended in April. Argos Resources Ltd., which also holds licenses in the region, decided not to use a rig after Rockhopper because it couldn’t raise enough money.

The global financial crisis has made it harder for oil explorers to borrow from banks and kept a lid on the amount companies can raise on the market. The oil and gas index of London’s Alternative Investment Market, where all five Falkland explorers are listed, fell 35 percent last year.

That leaves larger companies as the most likely sponsors in the region, and the government said some of them are already involved in talks.

“The majors are always going to be interested when a new basin comes on the map,” Morgan Stanley’s Calio said.

–Editors: Will Kennedy, Stephen Cunningham.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Will Kennedy at wkennedy3@bloomberg.net

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JANUARY 23, 2012

By LIAM DENNING

Even today, $1.67 trillion is a lot of money. That is the amount wiped off the combined market capitalization of the top 50 energy companies between the end of 2007 and the end of 2011. Breaking it down offers big clues on Big Oil’s prospects for 2012.

Every year, PFC Energy, a Washington, D.C.-based consultancy, ranks the top 50 listed energy companies in the world by market value. The latest, due Monday, has a surprise. The biggest gainers in 2011 were the dinosaurs of oil and gas: the supermajors. Their collective value increased by 8%, compared with a 7% decline for the PFC Energy 50 overall. It is only the second time they have led the field in the ranking’s 13-year history.

Conventional wisdom holds this shouldn’t be the case. Faith in the supermajors—Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips and Total—has waned as state-backed rivals like PetroChina have emerged and smaller competitors have opened up new frontiers like U.S. shale. Seemingly too big to grow but too small to offset the power of petro-states, the supermajors have been priced for decline.

Why did investors fall in love with them again in 2011? First and foremost: security. The S&P 500 ended 2011 down slightly after wild swings. In choppy markets, scale and cash payouts provide comfort. And the supermajors, with a collective value of $1.2 trillion at year end, provide it in spades. The three U.S. ones alone paid out 9% of all S&P 500 dividends and buybacks in the year ended September 2011, according to data from Standard & Poor’s and Capital IQ.

So how about that missing $1.67 trillion? It is gone despite the average price of Brent crude being 53% higher in 2011 than in 2007 (and 13% higher than in 2008, year of the super-spike). About half of that market value was lost by listed state-controlled national oil companies, or NOCs, like PetroChina. State support has its advantages, but it also means NOCs serve two masters: markets and mandarins. That makes them riskier investments.

While the NOCs in the ranking lost 44% of their value between 2007 and 2011, the supermajors declined by just 22%.

But it isn’t just safety that helped the supermajors lead the charge in 2011. Chevron, Exxon and Shell likely all delivered cash flow per share growth of 30% in 2011, well ahead of the traditional growth stocks of the exploration and production sector, according to Credit Suisse.

Ed Westlake, analyst at Credit Suisse, says the oil majors are more sensitive to oil prices than many investors think. In part, that is because much of their global natural-gas production is sold at prices linked to oil, rather than at the depressed, de-linked levels that prevail in the U.S.

This year, the supermajors are forecast to make $67 billion in free cash flow, according to FactSet Research Systems. That is down slightly from 2011′s expectation but still equates to a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.6%.

Goldman Sachs points out, however, that unlike a year ago, supermajor stocks enter 2012 trading at a slight premium to their smaller integrated oil peers. That, coupled with the fact that 2011′s cash-flow surge is unlikely to be repeated, means some investors’ gains may be redeployed into other energy stocks.

It seems unlikely that the supermajors will register the biggest gains in the PFC Energy 50 2012. That doesn’t make them a bad investment. With markets still unsettled—Europe, in particular, remains unpredictable—Big Oil will likely remain a safe haven. Stocks don’t always have to be the biggest winners to be reliable repositories of value.

Write to Liam Denning at liam.denning@wsj.com

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By Barbara Powell – Jan 13, 2012 1:22 PM GMT

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and leaders of the union representing workers at 69 U.S. oil refineries will begin negotiating a new three-year labor contract Jan. 17 to avoid a work stoppage that could disrupt plant operations.

The current contract between oil refiners and 30,000 members of the United Steel Workers expires Jan. 31. The last contract negotiations in January 2009 were settled after 12 days of talks that stalled as the union tried and failed to win safety improvements.

The union will make a similar demand at next week’s talks, according to Gary Beevers, a USW vice president and the union’s lead negotiator. The union hasn’t struck since 1980, when a work stoppage lasted three months. A strike would affect almost two- thirds of U.S. refining capacity, according to the USW.

“The most important objective is to get enforceable health and safety language into the contract,” Lynne Baker, a spokeswoman for the union in Nashville, Tennessee, said yesterday in an interview. “Our proposal will help the industry do a better job.”

Shell, negotiating on behalf of the companies, and union leaders, including Beevers, will meet in Austin, Texas, to hammer out terms. Any deal is subject to approval by refiners and pipeline operators before becoming the national pattern they use in negotiating local union contracts.

“Shell is optimistic that a mutually satisfactory agreement can be negotiated with the USW,” Kayla Macke, a spokeswoman for Shell, said yesterday in an e-mail.

Previous Agreement

In 2009, the union accepted higher wages while relenting on new safety provisions. The three-year labor agreement included 3 percent annual raises and a $2,500 bonus for workers.

“I think the union will be able to achieve some increase in wages because the oil companies have been making money although they will make the argument that many of the refineries have been losing money,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.

Contracts between the companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), and the local USW members must incorporate the terms of the national agreement, Baker said.

The majority of local contracts expire Jan. 31 and most of the rest later in the winter and spring.

Valero Energy Corp. has 13 U.S. refineries, of which five have union representation, Bill Day, a spokesman in San Antonio, said. Four of those five have contracts that expire between the end of January and April 23, he said. He declined to comment on negotiations, saying Valero had a “gentlemen’s agreement” with the union to not comment publicly on the talks.

To contact the reporter on this story: Barbara J. Powell in Dallas at bpowell4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net

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By Nariman Gizitdinov – Jan 11, 2012 6:00 PM GMT

The Kazakh government is considering a request from Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and other partners to raise the budget for the first phase of the Kashagan oil project by 20 percent to $46 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The international oil companies, which include Eni SpA (ENI) and Total SA (FP), will bear the extra cost themselves, the person said, declining to be identified as the information isn’t public. Kazakhstan’s state energy company, which also has a stake, will reimburse them with barrels of oil for its share once output starts, he said.

Kashagan, once touted as the world’s biggest discovery in four decades, has been plagued by cost overruns and delays over the past decade. An early estimate of $24 billion for the first phase was revised up to $38.6 billion. The venture underestimated the cost of building artificial islands for equipment and to house workers in a region that’s frozen almost half the year, while construction expenses also surged.

Shell, Exxon, Eni and Total each hold a 16.8 percent stake in the field, as does state-owned KazMunaiGaz National Co., according to the website of the North Caspian Operating Co., or NCOC, which manages the project. ConocoPhillips holds 8.4 percent and Japan’s Inpex Corp. (1605) has 7.56 percent.

The costs and schedule of the field’s development are “currently being considered” with the government after a review was carried out, NCOC said in an e-mailed statement.

KazMunaiGaz referred questions to Kazakhstan’s (OLPDKAZA) Oil and Gas Ministry, which didn’t respond to an e-mailed request for comment. Shell declined to comment, as did Eni and Total. Charlie Engelmann, an Exxon spokesman based in Irving, Texas, directed a request for comments to the project’s joint operator.

The Caspian Sea field will produce 370,000 to 450,000 barrels of oil a day in the first phase, which may double in the second phase in 2018 or 2019, Deputy Oil Minister Lyazzat Kiinov said last month.

Production is slated to begin in June 2013 “at the latest,” Deputy Oil Minister Lyazzat Kiinov said last month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nariman Gizitdinov in Almaty at ngizitdinov@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net

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The Associated Press January 9, 2012, 2:45PM ET

AMSTERDAM

A joint venture between Shell and Exxon says it has successfully drilled a significant new onshore natural gas field in the Netherlands.

Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij BV says in a statement the field contains 4 billion cubic meters of gas, about enough to supply 2.5 million households for a year. Production is due to begin this summer, the company says.

The Metslawier-zuid well, 3,900 meters (12,800 feet) deep, is located near the city of Dokkum, 130 kilometers (80 miles) northeast of Amsterdam.

Most Dutch natural gas reserves are stored in a single field in the province of Groningen. But 40 percent comes from smaller fields on land and offshore, such as the field announced Monday.

The Dutch state owns a 40 percent stake in Metslawier-zuid.

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James Kimer on January 4, 2012.

As the second largest energy company in the world after Exxon-Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell has been a major player in Nigerian oil and gas from the beginning, overseeing the first commercial export of oil from the country in 1958 from the Oloibiri Field.  Their success over the years has been notable, with operations are spread over 30,000 square kilometres in the Niger Delta, including more than 6,000 kilometres of flowlines and pipelines, 86 oil fields, 1,000 producing wells, 68 flowstations, 10 gas plants and two major oil export terminals at Bonny and Forcados.

But after a number of accidents, attacks by militants, and political scandals, is Shell’s honeymoon with Nigeria coming to an end?  Some recent events and transactions indicate a shift in the Dutch company’s strategy in the country, opening a window of opportunity for new operators.

The past year has battered and bruised Shell’s operations in Nigeria, with both environmental issues and political risk increasing.  Just this week, the company was forced to conduct emergency repairs on a sabotaged trunkline pipeline in Nembe Creek, Bayelsa State, where more than 200 barrels of oil were siphoned off by thieves, forcing Shell to cut production by 70,000 barrels a day during the repairs.  Sabotage and theft by militant gangs is currently on the rise following a brief lull since its height in 2005, while the company reportedly suffers the loss of between 70 to 200 barrels of oil stolen per day.

In December 2010, Shell also experienced its worst oil spill in Nigeria in the past decade, as more than 40,000 barrels of crude oil was spilled at the offshore Bonga Field (the accident being caused by tanker mishap instead of the usual sabotage).  According to a report in the Washington Post, “Some environmentalists say as much as 550 million gallons of oil poured into the delta during Shell’s roughly 50 years of production in Nigeria — a rate roughly comparable to one Exxon Valdez disaster per year.”

As a result, political pressure against Shell has also been mounting from civil society.  The Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the Earth (ERA/FoEN) has been on the offensive since the spill at Bonga Field, issuing statements demanding that the government secure independent verification of spillage data while enforcing clean-up payments.  The company’s environmental and human rights record has been under scrutiny at the highest levels, with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) issuing a harsh report in August 2011 that examined the ecological and public health ramifications of oil spills in Ogoniland.  One of the UNEP report’s key findings included the following:  “Control and maintenance of oilfield infrastructure in Ogoniland has been and remains inadequate: the Shell Petroleum Development Company’s own procedures have not been applied, creating public health and safety issues.”

Even before all these issues came about, there were indications that Shell may be scaling back its exposure to Nigerian energy.  Shell is the 30% owner of the joint venture Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC), which also features major stakeholders such as the state-owned NNPC with (55%), TotalFinaElf (10%) and Agip (5%), which together is responsible for a whopping 50% of all oil production in the country.  However in November 2011, Shell completed the sale of its shares in two major oil producing blocks (OML 26 and OML 42), while at the same time they are working to close ongoing deals to sell their stakes to three other blocks (OML 30, 34 and 40).

Representatives from the company are keen to express that these sales do not represent the beginnings of an “exit strategy.”  According to statements made by SPDC Managing Director Mutiu Sunmonu to NEXT Newspaper, “what we are doing is consolidating our operations to strengthen even our future in Nigeria. We are in Nigeria for the long haul. Some of these assets are of more value to indigenous companies than the multinationals. The sale of marginal oil fields is an exercise aimed at growing indigenous capacity in the upstream oil and gas industry.”

However, it appears that in fact the divestiture strategy is aimed at offloading the most vulnerable assets  in the company’s portfolio – the ones located onshore, and therefore susceptible to attacks, kidnappings, theft, and sabotage, indicating a declining confidence in the state’s ability to maintain law and order in the Delta region.  In recent years, Shell has experienced a steep decline in production among its onshore assets in Nigeria.  In 2009 Shell CEO Peter Voser said that due to violence in the Delta region, production has slacked to 120,000 barrels per day from the previous 300,000 barrels per day.

“The overall security situation is still very fragile, the government had some success with their amnesty programme and we are looking now towards the next few weeks to see how this influences the whole security situation,” Voser told Reuters. “But it would be by far too early to say that it has improved. We are still dealing with the same kind of issues.”

Two years later, it looks like Shell might be losing patience.  The sale of these marginal fields such as OML 40, referring to oil and gas assets that have yet to be developed due to difficult location, infrastructure, and access, are bringing about a sharp increase of participation by indigenous companies.  New players in the Nigerian oil sector include Mike Adenuga’s Consolidated Petroleum, Femi Otedola’s African Petroleum (AP) Consortium, Elcrest, and Neconde Energy.  There are other indigenous companies which are actually backed by international finance, such as Oando (China), Perenco (Afren – a Nat Rothschild entity), and Equinox Group (Gazprom).

But the reasons motivating Shell’s divestitures may be more complex than the challenges of violence, insecurity, and public scrutiny.  After all, the company has survived some of the roughest periods of Nigerian history, including the murder of activist Ken Saro-Wiwa by the Abacha regime, which resulted in a $15 million lawsuit settlement.  In 2008, attacks by militant groups such as the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) had reached such heights, that Shell was forced to steeply cut production, driving global oil prices to record highs well above $120 a barrel.  And yet, despite these harsh circumstances, the company persevered and held on up to the 2009 amnesty, which helped production recover.

The problem for the company may be bigger than just oil spills, theft, and attacks, as some observers point to the pending passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), which would revolutionize the tax and royalty structure for international oil companies doing business in Nigeria, carving out a sphere of participation in production and exploration (as opposed to simply regulation) for parastatal companies.  First proposed in 2008 by the presidential administration of Umaru Yar’Adua, the PIB is a complex, 100-page document that has been repeatedly stalled in the legislature due to controversy and disputes over its contents and purpose.  According to the former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja, Nasir El-Rufai, international oil companies such as Shell stoutly oppose the passage of the PIB and are actively lobbying against it because the bill contains new royalties structures for offshore production (because the Nigerian government forfeited these rights in a 1991 agreement).

And while the PIB remains stalled, much-needed foreign investment is put on hold.  According to one analyst interview by The Financial Times, “The wait for the adoption of the PIB is very damaging. It’s why the big new investments have been put on hold. The impact becomes exponentially more problematic [because] if reserves don’t get replaced, there is the risk of production capacity in Nigeria dropping for the first time in 30 years.”

As demonstrated by the overwhelming protests and public outrage over President Goodluck Jonathan’s decision to remove the fuel subsidy at the New Year, there is a strong social aspect to the country’s economic policies concerning the energy sector.  For most citizens, who live on less than $2 a day, the fuel subsidy was seen as the only way that the oil wealth was shared – and, with its removal, there could be increased public support for the passage of the PIB that aggressively targets the traditional energy players with higher taxes and more difficult conditions.

For the moment, public anger is directed toward President Jonathan and a small group of advisers.  But if this pressure translates into real political costs for the administration, it is possible to imagine President Jonathan finding a scapegoat in the foreign oil companies, and satiating voters with promises to pass the PIB and enforce payments on environmental clean-up costs.  If that’s the case, Shell’s divestitures may accelerate, while local companies – which are in no way more accountable – will take over more and more critical onshore production fields, posing an unknown risk to global energy supplies.

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By Elisha Bala-Gbogbo – Jan 3, 2012 5:25 PM GMT

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) shut oil flows of 70,000 barrels a day from the Nembe Creek Trunkline in Nigeria due to a leak caused by the theft of crude.

The pipeline, which supplies the Bonny export terminal, was halted Dec. 24. Shell is working on completing repairs before the end of the month.

“What is really worrying about this leak is that it happened on a facility which was commissioned in October 2009 to replace an old line which was repeatedly targeted by crude oil thieves,” Tony Attah, Shell’s vice president in charge of health, safety and environment, said today in an e-mailed statement.

Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil producer and the fifth- biggest source of U.S. imports. Shell, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Total SA and Eni SpA run joint ventures with the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. that pump about 90 percent of the country’s crude.

More than 200 barrels of crude that leaked after oil thieves installed two valves near a manifold on the pipeline have been cleared up, Shell said.

Europe’s largest oil company shut its 200,000 barrel-a-day Bonga field last month after it leaked less than 40,000 barrels in the country’s worst offshore spill in more than a decade.

Shell on Sept. 26 said it shut 25,000 barrels a day of crude from its Imo River field because of oil theft. The company on Aug. 23 declared force majeure, a legal clause that allows it to miss scheduled deliveries for circumstances beyond its control, on its Bonny Light crude exports after multiple pipeline incidents. The company shut its Adibawa pipeline on Aug. 22 after saboteurs cut crude lines, causing spills.

Attacks by armed groups targeting the oil industry cut more than 28 percent of Nigeria’s crude output from 2006 to 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Attacks subsided after thousands of militants campaigning for more local control of the delta’s energy resources accepted a government amnesty and disarmed in 2009.

To contact the reporter on this story: Elisha Bala-Gbogbo in Abuja at ebalagbogbo@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Antony Sguazzin at asguazzin@bloomberg.net

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