Royal Dutch Shell plc .com Rotating Header Image

Posts Tagged ‘Oil Prices’

Royal Dutch Shell CEO Peter Voser on a Swiss roll…

Introduction by John Donovan

It seems timely, in view of recent postings on our Shell Blog, to republish an article about Shell CEO Peter Voser authored by retired Royal Dutch Shell Executive, Paddy Briggs (right). It was first published on 27 July 2009. Paddy is currently a Member Nominated Trustee of the Shell Contributory Pension Fund.

On a Swiss roll…

By Paddy Briggs

Here’s the story. You are a Swiss accountant with a proven record of ruthlessness and synthetic business acumen. You are comfortable with numbers – that’s what you do – but you know little about the minutiae of the oil business. How can you be – you are not an “oil man” you are a “dollars man”. By guile, good fortune and the Peter Principle you find yourself at the helm of one of the world’s biggest oil and gas companies. You know that you will struggle with the difficult things – like creating an organisation that finds, develops, transports, refines and markets hydrocarbons. You know nothing at all about the oil and gas chain from exploration to consumption. You’ve never really worked in it – other than seeing spreadsheets which show you how much it costs. But you are now in charge. So what you do is retreat to the familiar world of numbers. That world where there is certainty – where something that costs “$100m” is only supportable if an adequate ROACE is assured. And where, even though future earnings are always, by definition, unpredictable you find a way of getting bogus certainty where there is none. By appointing more accountants and listening to them.null

And then there is the term over which you plan to steer the business. Everyone knows that the genetics of the oil business are very long term. To find oil (which costs money) and to develop that oil (which costs more) is within the special competences of Shell – always has been. But to harvest the oil and the gas and to generate the income streams you have to be patient. But how can you be patient if you want to show how macho and “profit-focused” you are? Cut, cut, cut. It’s what I do. And immediately the bottom line benefits. Never mind that in five or ten years we won’t have any new discoveries. Never mind that in a decade or so the reserves cupboard will be bare. I’ll be on a seven figure pension by then like Mark and Phil and Jeroen before me. Ha!

Shell reminds us of the moral bankruptcy of the corporate elite

By STEVE HAWKES, Business Editor: Published: 3 February 2012

SHELL is coining it as pump prices soar — after yesterday unveiling an £18BILLION profits bonanza.

The oil giant sparked outrage by boasting it raked in almost £2.2million an HOUR last year.

Hard-up motorists — now facing forecourt prices that are almost back to record levels — were left fuming.

Almost all of the 54 per cent surge in profits was down to the rocketing price of crude.

Shell, which also benefited from rising gas prices, insisted it barely made a penny at the pumps. But the RAC’s Adrian Tink raged: “Motorists understandably feel they are being taken for a ride when they see figures like these. We understand they don’t make a large amount at the pump but they make a lot of money when the oil price is going up.

“That’s the reason petrol is going up too. Motorists feel they are getting the thin end of the wedge.”

The bumper profits come as diesel hovers just below the all-time high it hit last May — 143p per litre. Unions were aghast after the grasping multinational last month scrapped its final salary pension scheme for new recruits, claiming it was too expensive.

Len McCluskey, general secretary of Unite, said: “Shell reminds us of the moral bankruptcy of the corporate elite.”

SOURCE ARTICLE

MyView by STEVE HAWKES

SHELL’S success is good for Britain as tax goes to the Treasury and dividends flow into our pension funds.

But something is not working.

Shell has made a packet because of the surge in energy prices on a global scale — blamed for sending UK fuel and gas bills through the roof.

It’s time to square the circle.

SUN EDITORIAL 2 February 2012: Shell shocked

IT’S the same old depressing story on petrol prices.

Shell’s annual profits hit £18billion – but it says it cannot do anything about pump prices at record levels.

Really? How about using a fraction of the £7billion paid to shareholders to ease the burden on customers?

Boss Peter Voser promises massive investments over the next few years that will “benefit everyone”.

Everyone who’s a Shell executive or shareholder, presumably. Millions of motorists cannot afford to drive.

And that’s because fuel firms are taking them for a ride.

Oil price could fall to $70 in 2012 amid volatility, Shell warns

Oil prices could fall to $70 a barrel during 2012, from current levels above $110, as high volatility in the economy and energy markets becomes “a fact of life”, Royal Dutch Shell executives said.

By Emily Gosden: 3 February 2012

The oil giant unveiled its 2011 results on Thursday, with a 54pc jump in full-year profits to $28.6bn (£18.1bn).

High oil prices helped to compensate for a tough fourth quarter in which Shell reported a loss in its ‘downstream’ refining and marketing division.

Shell’s chief executive, Peter Voser, outlined an aggressive long-term growth strategy, focused on ‘upstream’ exploration and production. He said the strategy would help Shell ride out volatility and increase cash flow by up to 50pc over the next four years. It would spend $30bn in 2012, with more than 60 projects under construction and in design.

“The global economy and energy markets are likely to see continued high volatility,” he said, due to a combination of robust structural growth and “unprecedented geopolitical events” such as the Japanese earthquake, eurozone crisis and the Arab spring.

“Both volatile macro and volatile earnings are now a fact of life for our industry,” he said. “We deal with this by staying focused on longer-term trends.”

Mr Voser said Shell used “conservative ranges” in its assumptions about oil prices to assess risk when planning projects, to ensure they break even – even if prices fall. “We plan inside a $50-$90 range for oil,” he said.

Discussing the $50-$90 planning range, Simon Henry, Shell’s chief financial officer, told analysts: “I’m not sure we see it right at the bottom of that one over the next 12 months, but we could certainly see it in the middle of that range,” he said.

However, Mr Henry said that the company’s target of up to 50pc cashflow growth in the next four years was based on oil remaining above $80.

“Our cash flow from operations was $136bn for 2008-2011, over the four year period during which the average oil price was $87,” he said. “In the next four years we are expecting cash flow from operations to be 30pc to 50pc higher than that, around $175-$200bn in four years, assuming $80-$100 Brent oil prices.”

Shell’s results were slightly below expectations, which had already been lowered recently as the extent of the downturn in the refining industry became apparent.

Fourth quarter earnings for 2011 on a current cost of supply (CCS) basis – the oil industry’s preferred measure that strips out inventory value changes – were $6.46bn, down 11pc on the previous quarter, but up 13pc on the same quarter in 2010. It saw a $278m loss in downstream in the quarter, compared with a $482m profit in the same period of 2010.

Mr Voser said: “Our fourth quarter results were impacted by a sharp downturn in industry refining margins and North American natural gas prices.”

Shell said it planned a dividend for the first quarter of 2012 of $0.43 a share, up 2pc on the first quarter of 2011 but below some expectations.

It also said it had sold a 20pc stake in a Canadian shale gas project to PetroChina, in a deal estimated to be worth $1bn. Shares closed down 28.5p at £22.97.

SOURCE ARTICLE (WITH COMMENTS)

RELATED ARTICLES

Shell accused of ‘moral bankruptcy’

Shell has been accused of “moral bankruptcy” by unions after unveiling a 54% rise in full-year profits less than a month after shutting its final salary pension scheme to new employees in Britain.

The oil company reported global annual earnings of $28.6bn (£18bn) – more than £2m an hour – while paying out $10.5bn to shareholders during 2011 and promising to raise dividend levels further in the coming months.

Peter Voser, Shell’s chief executive, said “there is more [good profit] to come” as he outlined a new programme of increased global investment as well as cuts that he said would provide even better returns for investors.

“We have worked hard to generate a strong pipeline of investment opportunities for Shell … All of this is supported by efficiency gains from our continuous improvement programmes,” Voser said.

But Europe’s largest oil group was attacked for displaying “predatory capitalism” by Len McCluskey, leader of the Unite union. “Shell reminds us of the moral bankruptcy of the corporate elite. The company is needlessly closing its final salary scheme while posting colossal profits,” he said. “Rather than provide security to its future staff and still make a profit, it has chosen greed. Shell is not alone: Unilever is needlessly slashing its employees’ pension benefits when there is no financial reason for doing so.”

Shell, which has also upset staff by unveiling plans to shut its major research and development centre at Stanlow in Cheshire after disposing of its refinery there, said it was surprised by the attack.

A spokesman pointed out that most government and private pension schemes paid in Britain were supported by Shell, which provides 12% of all dividends from the FTSE 100 index of leading firms.

The Anglo-Dutch group is riding high on the back of surging oil prices – which were more than $30 per barrel higher last year than in 2010 – and booming demand for gas, but says it is making most of its money outside Britain and makes barely 1p per litre out of petrol sales.

Voser pointed out that two thirds of the UK pump price went straight to the government as tax. He blamed near record prices for forecourt diesel on global crude market conditions and said Shell’s UK retail operations continued to come under “very heavy competitive pressures”.

Shell would continue to invest in the North Sea in oil projects such as those it has west of Shetland, but said there was a need for the right “tax structures to keep the oil and gas industry alive here”.

The company was doing “our bit for balancing the books” of the Treasury through paying a heavy tax burden, it said, while denying that its recent sale of the Stanlow refinery to an Indian group had any impact on the wider refining and distribution problems that have recently hit the south-east of England.

Shares in Shell rose 11% last year while arch-rivals such as BP saw no growth at all but on Thursday the Anglo-Dutch group’s stock market valuation fell slightly as the City was disappointed by the financial performance in the last quarter of the year.

Shell reported three-monthly earnings of $6.5bn, which was up on the same period last year but down quite heavily on the third quarter.

Total oil and gas production in the fourth quarter was lower, at 3.3m barrels of oil equivalent per day compared with 3.49m barrels a year ago. Shell said it would increase annual production to 3.7m barrels by 2014, helped by a $100bn investment plan which started in 2010.

The company said it would put much of its drilling efforts into the US and it now claims to have become the biggest driller – but not producer – in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico where BP used to reign supreme. Since the government moratorium on drilling in the Gulf, imposed following BP’s Deepwater Horizon spill, was lifted, Shell has obtained permission to drill five wells during 2012.

The company said it was treading carefully, meanwhile, in the Middle East in the wake of the Arab spring, but hopes to reveal soon how its exploration programme has been going in Saudi Arabia and when it plans to get back to similar work in Libya.

Shale hopes

Shell is hoping to turn the “shale gas revolution” sweeping north America into an export earner but also expects to see the controversial new energy source taking off in Europe once an “emotional” debate dies down.

The Anglo Dutch oil company is looking at possible plans to ship surplus quantities of the fuel, as liquefied natural gas or “gas-to-liquid” processed fuel, from the US.

Natural gas prices in north America have fallen to a 10-year low due to the discovery that gas can be extracted from shale rock using a technique known as hydraulic fracturing or “fracking”. It uses an assortment of chemicals to release gas with tiny explosions and has upset environmentalists and some politicians.

Peter Voser, chief executive of Shell, said $6bn would be spent worldwide on different kinds of shale gas operation, half of this in the US. The heavily populated nature of Europe versus the US made it more difficult to “frack” this side of the Atlantic, Voser conceded, but he said governments should “not take fast and emotional decisions” to restrict shale extraction. Shell expects Poland and even Germany to proceed with shale gas exploitation but it is also looking at operations in Ukraine and China.

SOURCE ARTICLE

Shell Earnings Decline on Lower Gas Prices


By Eduard Gismatullin – Feb 2, 2012 8:02 AM GMT

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), Europe’s biggest oil company, expects to raise its dividend this year for the first time since 2009 as new projects generate more cash.

Shell plans net capital investment of $30 billion, with cashflow from operations in 2012-2015 expected to be as much as 50 percent higher than in the 2008 to 2011 period.

Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser said growth will be driven by more than 60 new projects, unlocking potential resources of more than 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent. That’s on top of 14 projects started in 2009-11, including Qatar’s Pearl gas-to-liquids venture.

“Our improving financial position creates an opportunity to increase both our dividends and investment levels,” Voser said today in a statement.

Net income fell to $6.5 billion in the fourth quarter from $6.79 billion a year earlier, The Hague-based Shell said. Excluding one-time items and inventory changes, profit missed analyst estimates.

Shell is the first of Europe’s biggest oil companies to report earnings. It will be followed by BP Plc on Feb. 7 and Total SA on Feb. 10. Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest energy company by market value, reported fourth-quarter sales that fell short of analysts’ estimates earlier this week.

Shell posted adjusted earnings of $4.8 billion, compared with the $5.2 billion median estimate of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

‘Substantial Undershoot’

“The overall result represents a substantial undershoot against a consensus which just three weeks ago was above $7 billion,” said Stuart Joyner, an analyst at Investec Bank Plc.

U.K. front-month natural gas prices are down about 20 percent since reaching a 2011 high of 67.80 pence per therm on Nov. 7. Milder weather in Europe and maintenance curbed Shell’s production by about 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent in the quarter, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

Shell will increase production to about 4 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2017-2018. Last March, it said daily output would rise to 3.5 million barrels this year and 3.7 million barrels by 2014.

Output fell 5.5 percent to 3.305 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period.

Profit was also curbed by maintenance at rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. Shell shut the Bonga field in Nigeria after an offshore oil spill, the nation’s worst in more than a decade. A fire disrupted shipments from Shell’s Pulau Bukom plant in Singapore, the company’s biggest.

Shell made a loss of $278 million from its refining and marketing operations, compared with a profit of $482 million a year earlier. Crude-processing fell 17 percent as sales dropped.

Refining margins from processing oil into fuels such as gasoline and diesel on the U.S. Gulf coast fell 22 percent to $7.16 a barrel in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to BP Plc data.

Of the 31 analysts that cover Shell, 21 recommend buying the shares, nine have ‘hold’ ratings, and one advises investors to sell the stock.

Shell plans to increase the dividend by 2.4 percent to 43 cents in the first quarter from 42 cents announced in the fourth quarter.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eduard Gismatullin in London at egismatullin@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Will Kennedy at wkennedy3@bloomberg.net

SOURCE ARTICLE

Shell’s quarterly adjusted earnings up 18%

Feb. 2, 2012, 2:39 a.m. EST

By Alexis Flynn

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Royal Dutch Shell PLC Thursday posted an 18% rise in adjusted profit for the fourth quarter, but Europe’s largest company by market capitalization still missed analyst expectations, as poor refining margins and lower natural gas demand crimped some of the benefits of higher crude prices.

“Our fourth quarter results were impacted by a sharp downturn in industry refining margins and North American natural gas prices,” said Chief Executive Peter Voser, adding that “the global economy and energy markets are likely to see continued high volatility.”

The Anglo-Dutch energy company said the clean current cost of supplies, a keenly-watched figure that strips out gains or losses from inventories and other non-operating items, was $4.85 billion in the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with $4.11 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010. This was below expectations of $5.16 billion in a Dow Jones Newswires poll of fifteen analysts.

Total oil and gas production was 3.305 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, a decline of 5% on the year as asset sales and the temporary shutdown of one of its biggest Nigerian fields affected output. Analysts were expecting production to decline 6.4%.

Net profit for the quarter totaled $6.50 billion, down 4% from $6.79 billion a year ago.

Group revenues were $119.13 billion, compared with $105.53 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Diluted earnings per share were 1.04 compared with $1.10 the previous year.

Shell B shares closed at 2,326 pence Wednesday. The stock rose 11% in 2011 despite volatile equity markets, buoyed by continued high oil prices and its improved financial performance.

SOURCE ARTICLE

Shell Seen Raising Dividend for First Time Since 2009: Energy

Shell may even go as far as paying a special dividend or buying back shares to maximize shareholder value, according to analysts at Citigroup Inc.

Click to continue reading “Shell Seen Raising Dividend for First Time Since 2009: Energy”

Shell’s profits surge 175 per cent to $27.3 billion

Sunday Express


Sunday 29 Jan 2012

By Tracey Boles

ROYAL Dutch Shell is set to gush full-year profits of $27.3 billion (£17.4 billion) for 2011, a 175 per cent increase in a year.

The expected surge in earnings comes despite fourth-quarter profits hurt by lower demand because of the warm winter weather.

The results, buoyed by the high cost of crude oil last year, represent a spectacular return to form for the oil giant which reported disappointing full-year profits for 2010 of $9.8 billion (£6.3 billion).

However, it is still below its 2009 record performance of $31.4 billion ($20 billion).

Analysts predict that profits for the fourth quarter at the Anglo-Dutch company will be about $5.1 billion (£3.3 billion), which compares with $7.25 billion in the third quarter.

This represents a drop of about 25 per cent which is attributed to the mild winter and an extensive maintenance programme.

But it is a strong recovery from the previous year, when it suffered a 75 per cent crash in fourth-quarter profits to $1.18 billion (£750 million).

Analysts at Collins Stewart said: “Shell will report its Q4 2011 results on February 2. We expect a combination of circumstances to lead to weak figures, as was the case at fourth-quarter 2010.”

“In our view the market is still underestimating the scale of growth in its cash flow, from an underlying $32 billion (£31.8 billion) in 2010 to about $50 billion (£20 billion) by 2013 on our estimates.”

The experts also expect guidance this week on the 2012 dividend, with growth predicted.

Profits at Shell set to anger drivers

Published on Sunday 29 January 2012 00:00

HIGHER annual and quarterly profits from oil heavyweight Royal Dutch Shell are this week expected to ignite the fury of hard-pressed drivers who continue to face near record prices at the petrol pump.

But the figures are likely to spell good news for investors as analysts raise the prospect that Shell, which boasts one of the largest dividends on the FTSE, may recommend an increase in the pay-out.

Although both full-year and quarterly numbers will be released, the City will focus on profits for the last three months of 2011, which are expected to be about 20 per cent higher compared to the same period in 2010.

However, analysts forecast they will be roughly 27 per cent below the third quarter as oil prices remained relatively flat over the final three months of 2011. That followed steep price gains earlier in the year driven by the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa.

The City spotlight on Thursday will also be on whether Shell confirms progress in getting American regulatory permits to explore an eventual potential oil bonanza off the Alaskan coast.

Jason Kenney, oil analyst with Santander, said: “Shell is a cash machine, but not really a growth entity. The ambitions [for Alaska] are still there, however.

“It [Alaska] will be a big exploration opportunity when it gets the full go‑ahead, with identified targets [for oil exploration].”

Analysts at broker Charles Stanley believe Shell “should have room to increase the [Q4] dividend”. It cites cash flow of $45 billion (£28.6bn) generated in 2011 compared to capital spending of $27bn and dividends of $10bn in the first three quarters. The broker forecasts rival BP, which reports the following week, will peg its fourth-quarter dividend at seven cents.

Santander forecasts an underlying profit at Shell, on a current cost of supplies basis, of $4.9bn, up from $4.1bn in the same quarter of 2010.

For the full year, the bank’s broking arm expects profits will have gone up to $24.7bn from $18.6bn in the previous 12 months.

While Shell’s exploration and production division is expected to have boosted profits to more than $5bn in the final three months of its financial year, up 52 per cent, it is thought the downstream – refining and marketing – arm may have fallen to a loss of between $180m and $210m.

Refining and petrochemical margins have been under pressure throughout the whole energy industry, partly on lower chemical volumes and the weakness of the euro.

BP, which reports on 7 February, is also seen as having boosted earnings as it continues to put the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster behind it.

Charles Stanley forecasts that BP’s fourth-quarter profits will have jumped 22 per cent to $2.2bn.

SOURCE ARTICLE

Can Big Oil Repeat Its Big Year?

JANUARY 23, 2012

By LIAM DENNING

Even today, $1.67 trillion is a lot of money. That is the amount wiped off the combined market capitalization of the top 50 energy companies between the end of 2007 and the end of 2011. Breaking it down offers big clues on Big Oil’s prospects for 2012.

Every year, PFC Energy, a Washington, D.C.-based consultancy, ranks the top 50 listed energy companies in the world by market value. The latest, due Monday, has a surprise. The biggest gainers in 2011 were the dinosaurs of oil and gas: the supermajors. Their collective value increased by 8%, compared with a 7% decline for the PFC Energy 50 overall. It is only the second time they have led the field in the ranking’s 13-year history.

Conventional wisdom holds this shouldn’t be the case. Faith in the supermajors—Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips and Total—has waned as state-backed rivals like PetroChina have emerged and smaller competitors have opened up new frontiers like U.S. shale. Seemingly too big to grow but too small to offset the power of petro-states, the supermajors have been priced for decline.

Why did investors fall in love with them again in 2011? First and foremost: security. The S&P 500 ended 2011 down slightly after wild swings. In choppy markets, scale and cash payouts provide comfort. And the supermajors, with a collective value of $1.2 trillion at year end, provide it in spades. The three U.S. ones alone paid out 9% of all S&P 500 dividends and buybacks in the year ended September 2011, according to data from Standard & Poor’s and Capital IQ.

So how about that missing $1.67 trillion? It is gone despite the average price of Brent crude being 53% higher in 2011 than in 2007 (and 13% higher than in 2008, year of the super-spike). About half of that market value was lost by listed state-controlled national oil companies, or NOCs, like PetroChina. State support has its advantages, but it also means NOCs serve two masters: markets and mandarins. That makes them riskier investments.

While the NOCs in the ranking lost 44% of their value between 2007 and 2011, the supermajors declined by just 22%.

But it isn’t just safety that helped the supermajors lead the charge in 2011. Chevron, Exxon and Shell likely all delivered cash flow per share growth of 30% in 2011, well ahead of the traditional growth stocks of the exploration and production sector, according to Credit Suisse.

Ed Westlake, analyst at Credit Suisse, says the oil majors are more sensitive to oil prices than many investors think. In part, that is because much of their global natural-gas production is sold at prices linked to oil, rather than at the depressed, de-linked levels that prevail in the U.S.

This year, the supermajors are forecast to make $67 billion in free cash flow, according to FactSet Research Systems. That is down slightly from 2011′s expectation but still equates to a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.6%.

Goldman Sachs points out, however, that unlike a year ago, supermajor stocks enter 2012 trading at a slight premium to their smaller integrated oil peers. That, coupled with the fact that 2011′s cash-flow surge is unlikely to be repeated, means some investors’ gains may be redeployed into other energy stocks.

It seems unlikely that the supermajors will register the biggest gains in the PFC Energy 50 2012. That doesn’t make them a bad investment. With markets still unsettled—Europe, in particular, remains unpredictable—Big Oil will likely remain a safe haven. Stocks don’t always have to be the biggest winners to be reliable repositories of value.

Write to Liam Denning at liam.denning@wsj.com

SOURCE ARTICLE