Shell’s Slow-Motion Oil Orgy: How to Kill the Planet and Still Get a Bonus

Why invest in the future when you can squeeze the last dollars out of the apocalypse?

Well, well, well—look who’s back at it. Shell, the undisputed heavyweight champion of environmental disregard, has once again reminded us that its idea of “transition” involves moving from one yacht to another, not from oil to renewables. Welcome to the age of Big Oil’s “managed decline,” which is just a posh way of saying: we’re scaling down investment in the future so we can keep setting fire to the present more profitably.

Let’s cut through the fossil-fuel fog: Shell, the ultimate sin stock (proudly held by climate-conscience titans like BlackRock), has decided to lower its annual spending target to $20–22 billion through 2028, down from the already-not-exactly-ambitious $22–25 billion. At the same time, it has graciously committed to keeping oil output flat at 1.4 million barrels per day—because what’s good for emissions is good for business, right?

But wait! Shell’s not all doom and hydrocarbons. No, no—they’re pivoting to the clean, planet-saving promise of… more liquefied natural gas. You know, the stuff they market as “transitional” while conveniently ignoring the methane leaks, carbon emissions, and infrastructure lock-in. Shell plans to grow LNG sales by 4–5% annually. Because nothing says decarbonisation quite like turbocharging fossil fuels in liquid form.

And what about renewables? Ha. Shell’s board has basically ghosted them. After all, why waste precious capex on solar panels when you can shovel cash back to shareholders instead? Shell’s now upping payouts to 40–50% of cash flow, because share buybacks > planetary survival.

Over at BP, things are equally bleak-but-cheerful. After a spectacularly fumbled attempt at pretending to go green, BP slashed its annual spending to $13–15 billion, down from $16.2 billion. Naturally, they too are boosting shareholder returns—because it’s not about the climate, darling. It’s about the dividend.

Meanwhile, across the pond, Chevron is trimming spending but still wants to grow production by 5–6%—because… logic? And ExxonMobil, never one to miss a chance to swim upstream in a river of oil, is ramping up spending to $28–33 billion a year and planning to jack up production to 5.4 million barrels per day. Just in case you were wondering if anyone in Houston has ever seen a climate report.

The industry’s justification? Oh, you know: long-term uncertainty, “peak demand” hand-wringing, and something something shareholder discipline. Remember “peak oil supply”? That ancient myth that we’d run out of oil? Turns out, we’re more likely to drown in it—especially since demand for gasoline is already flattening in the U.S. and China, but Big Oil remains locked in full-throttle mode.

And as for the minor detail of planetary collapse? Totally manageable, apparently—just ignore it. Even the post-Ukraine price shocks and the climate-whiplash politics of a potential Trump sequel haven’t swayed these fossil barons. They’re doubling down, greenwashing harder, and cashing in faster.

So here’s the real strategy: slash green spending, milk your existing assets dry, pretend LNG is clean, and funnel every spare dollar to investors while the house burns.

It’s brilliant, really—if your endgame is to become the last person profiting in a world of heatwaves, floods, and failed crops. Shell’s playing 4D chess, where every move sacrifices the board and still ends in a bonus.

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