Seeking Alpha
Shell Jumps Out Of Fire And Lands In The Frying Pan
Zoltan Ban: Nov. 19, 2021
- Shell’s move to exit the Dutch tax and legal jurisdiction is officially presented as an issue of dividend taxation that Shell and others hoped for years to see it repealed.
- Though it is not much discussed by Shell or the media, the harsh environmental ruling by a Dutch court that forces Shell to cut emissions may have played a role.
- Even though Shell is not currently faced with similar legal pressures in the UK, it may nevertheless feel other pressures to cut emissions by a similar margin.
- Shell’s upstream segment is the most likely part of the business that will be sacrificed to environmental pressures.
- Shell will most likely try to adapt its LNG and petrochemicals sector to lower emissions, that will make it less profitable. Higher natural gas prices will add to profitability concerns.
Investment thesis: Shell (RDS.A), (RDS.B) is leaving the Dutch legal jurisdiction, officially due to some dividend tax issues and it will make the UK its sole home base. Unofficially, it may be in large part a way to escape a court-imposed emissions reduction demand on its business activities. While the move to escape a legally binding cut of 45% compared with 2020 levels by 2030 is potentially avoided through this move, the internal, as well as external pressures for it to cut emissions, hydrocarbons production, and so on, will not cease. read more
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