“People will use public transport less” because of fears about picking up infection on crowded trains and buses, Cuneyt Kazokoglu, head of oil demand analysis at energy consultancy FGE, wrote in the Financial Times this month. “Increased reliance on cars once the lockdown measures ease will support petrol demand, potentially for years to come.”
There’s an intuitive logic to that proposition, and even signs that it might be backed up by data. Chinese cities are already seeing traffic jams on a par with pre-coronavirus times, according to data from TomTom International BV. With the pandemic still raging, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report has been showing a pick-up in gasoline consumption since its lows last month, though it’s still running 40% below where it was a year ago.