HELLFIRE MERGER: When Shell Meets BP, the Planet Burns

By John Donovan: royaldutchshellplc.com

Is it a match made in heaven or a merger forged in the flaming pits of fossil-fuel hell?

Shell and BP—Britain’s beloved petro-behemoths—are flirting with a union so unholy it could make even Beelzebub blink. Bloomberg’s whispers and spreadsheets are in overdrive, but let’s cut the polite analyst drivel: this isn’t about synergy—it’s about greed, greenwashing, and grabbing the last oily dollars before the planet croaks.

“Greenwashing Since 1907,” reads the headline in our accompanying cartoon (see above), and we mean it. Shell and BP have been gaslighting the public longer than most countries have had electricity. And now, they’re pondering a mega-merger that could hand them even more power to pollute, profiteer, and pretend they’re helping the planet.

The Corporate Marriage from Climate Hell

According to JPMorgan (a bank not exactly known for climate humility), Shell is being “tipped as a natural consolidator.” That’s finance-speak for “a vulture ready to swoop on BP’s rotting ESG corpse.” Apparently, this merger will offer “stronger oil production into the 2030s” and “greater flexibility in navigating the energy transition.” Translation: drill more, stall longer, and slap solar panels on a press release.

BP’s got baggage, sure—emissions targets that are slightly less laughable than Shell’s, a credit rating limping behind, and performance that screams “midlife crisis.” But none of that matters if Shell smells a discount. As one analyst politely put it: “At current valuations, BP’s shares trade at a discount.” And vultures love a discount.

Risky Business as Usual

Shell shareholders—many of them institutions so large they could blot out the sun—would need to see “clear gains in free cash flow per share.” That’s code for: ruin the climate, but please, do it profitably.

But let’s not forget who funds this charade. Enter BlackRock and Vanguard—moral compasses so broken they could point south at the North Pole. Together they hold tens of billions in Shell shares and cheerlead the plunder while whispering sweet nothings about ESG.

And what a legacy they’re backing. Shell—the oil-stained octopus with tentacles in apartheid South Africa, and a history of collaboration through its co-founded spook firm, Hakluyt, which made MI6 look like cub scouts. BP, not to be outdone, danced the same dirty tango. Now they want to get hitched? How heart-warming.

The Numbers Lie in Oil

JPMorgan gamely ran the numbers: with a 20% premium, Shell might squeeze out a 13–14% free cash flow growth rate if it uses a “mix of cash and equity.” But here’s the punchline: a 100% equity deal offers—drumroll—no improvement at all. Unless Shell can squeeze BP harder, it’s a damp oil rag of a deal.

But don’t count on them walking away. These aren’t rational actors—they’re carbon junkies in three-piece suits, chasing one last high before the regulatory walls close in.

Shell: The Ultimate Sin Stock

Why stop at a merger? Perhaps Shell should just go full villain. Ditch the renewables division, rebrand the swastika, and give Greta Thunberg a stake in carbon futures. At least it would be honest.

Because this isn’t about the energy transition. It’s about transition delay. It’s about pretending to “navigate” climate change while paving the road to collapse in bitumen and lies.

As Thies noted in Power and Powerlessness, even Shell’s own historians couldn’t agree on how to whitewash Deterding’s Nazi ties. It’s fitting that today’s Shell has chosen greenwashing instead.

Graphic credit: royaldutchshellplc.com and John Donovan in collaboration with AI

This website and sisters royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net, and shellwikipedia.com, are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia segment.