Brace yourselves—Shell is back with yet another self-serving prediction, gleefully announcing that global demand for liquefied natural gas will skyrocket by 60% by 2040. Because, apparently, the only way to “transition” to cleaner energy is to double down on fossil fuels. According to Shell’s latest annual LNG outlook, this demand surge will be driven by economic growth in Asia, AI’s insatiable energy appetite, and the ever-magical goal of “cutting emissions”—which, of course, in Shell-speak means burning more gas while pretending it’s green.
The world’s biggest LNG trader now claims that LNG demand could reach between 630 million and 718 million metric tons per year by 2040, up from last year’s forecast of 625 million to 685 million. That’s right, Shell is so excited about the climate crisis that it keeps revising its expectations upwards. “Upgraded forecasts show that the world will need more gas for power generation, heating and cooling, industry and transport to meet development and decarbonisation goals,” proclaims Tom Summers, Shell’s senior VP for LNG marketing and trading—somehow keeping a straight face while saying it.
Meanwhile, China and India—two of the biggest LNG importers—are ramping up their infrastructure to fuel Shell’s profits, with China’s natural gas imports hitting an all-time high of 131.69 million tons last year, including a whopping 76.65 million tons of LNG. India, according to the International Energy Agency, will see a 60% spike in natural gas consumption between 2023 and 2030, forcing it to double its LNG imports. Shell, naturally, sees this as an opportunity, not a warning.
And let’s not forget emerging markets like Algeria, Egypt, Malaysia, and Indonesia, where young populations and economic growth are driving gas demand. But here’s the catch: domestic production in these regions is set to nosedive by up to 50 million tons over the next 15 years, meaning even more dependency on imported LNG—aka, more money flowing straight into Shell’s already overflowing coffers.
On the supply side, Shell promises a flood of more than 170 million tonnes of new LNG capacity by 2030 to keep up with this ever-increasing addiction. But, of course, the timelines for these projects remain conveniently “uncertain.” Translation: Shell will keep hyping up LNG demand while stalling on actual delivery, ensuring tight supply, higher prices, and bigger profits for its biggest investors like BlackRock and Vanguard—because climate destruction is a business model, not a concern.
At the end of the day, this latest LNG outlook is just another chapter in Shell’s long-running con. More gas, more emissions, more profit—wrapped up in a thin layer of greenwashing to make it palatable. The only transition Shell is really interested in is transitioning as much wealth as possible into the hands of its shareholders while the planet burns.
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