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Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer Warns Short-Term Energy Policies Risk Economic Slowdown By 2020 Shell: Short-Term Energy Policies Risk Econ Slowdown By 2020

April 03, 2008: 01:03 PM EST

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Top Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) executives will say Monday that short-term energy policy decisions and a failure to curb energy demand may result in a temporary global economic slowdown within 12 years.

In a presentation in Brussels to the Friends of Europe think-tank, Shell Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer and Jeremy Bentham, responsible for the company’s energy outlooks, will say that under a scenario they call “Scramble”, the rush by consuming nations toward coal, biofuels and heavier hydrocarbons spells a world economic slowdown by 2020 as a supply crisis takes hold.

In a document entitled “Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050”, parts of which have already been made publicly available, the company also presents a more benign alternative outlook which it calls “Blueprints”.

Under this, market-driven efficiency measures come into play and energy intensity falls.

By 2050, more than 60% of electricity is projected to come from non-fossil fuel sources in this scenario and five years later the European Union and the U.S. will have cut energy use per capita by a third from now.

However, coal use still more than doubles over that period – albeit some of it incorporating carbon capture and storage technology – and substantial cuts to emissions would remain a serious challenge.

Shell’s Blueprints scenario also suggests oil-derived energy consumption will climb almost 7% to 157 exajoules annually in the period, in contrast to a 4% decline under the more pessimistic Scramble outlook.

Still, total energy use under Blueprints is 13% lower by 2050 than under the Scramble scenario.

Achieving the outcomes detailed in Blueprints “will not be easy and time is short”, van der Veer says in the report, adding; “We urgently need clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership.”

-By Adam Smallman, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0) 20 7842 9343; [email protected] (Alessandro Torello in Brussels contributed to this story.)

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  04-03-08 1303ET
  Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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