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Over a barrel: industry players predict future price movements

Times Online
May 23, 2008

Over a barrel: industry players predict future price movements


Arjun Murti

Goldman Sach’s star energy analyst, based in New York, won plaudits for predicting a super-spike in oil prices to $100 as far back as 2005. His latest prediction is for prices to hit $200 per barrel within two years because supplies will be unable to meet soaring global demand.

Goldman Sachs claims a chronic lack of supply will lead to a “dramatic and continuous rise in oil prices”, followed at some point by a steep drop in demand as consumers finally respond by cutting consumption.


T Boone Pickens

The legendary Texan oil speculator has forecast that oil will hit $150 per barrel this year. Now that his previous target of $125 has been exceeded, T Boone Pickens believes oil prices would continue rising because of a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand. He added that President Bush wasted his time making a trip to Saudi Arabia asking for more oil. The Saudis announced a 300,000 barrel per day increase but within hours, the oil price had rallied again to a record high.


Ed Morse

Murti’s Wall Street rival over at Lehman Brothers gave warning this week that crude prices were developing into a bubble and had surged far ahead of a rise in the underlying cost structure of the industry. He also said Saudi Arabia might wait until after the US elections to pump more oil in order to buy influence with the incoming US president. He has predicted a steep fall in prices to $80 in 2009.


John Hofmeister

is the president of Shell Oil Company, the US arm of Royal Dutch Shell. While he stopped short of predicting where prices would head, Mr Hofmeister said this week that Shell could succeed with oil prices at $35-$65 a barrel.

Mr Hofmeister told a hearing of the Senate Judiciary Committee on oil prices: “I think in a range – somewhere between $35 and $65 a barrel – is what has been consistent in our ability to run a successful company.” and its also non-profit sister websites,,,,, and are all owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia article.

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