Shell to Swallow BP? European Megamerger Could Birth Frankenstein’s Oil Giant

Get ready for the unholy matrimony of Big Oil’s most morally elastic titans. Rumours are swirling that Shell, the master of greenwash and geopolitical manoeuvres, is sizing up a takeover of BP, its long-time accomplice in pollution, profiteering, and PR spin. If consummated, this would be one of Europe’s largest-ever mergers—a monstrous oil-and-gas chimera that might finally give ExxonMobil something to worry about.

And let’s be honest: Shell and BP getting back together is less a love story than the reunion tour of colonial capitalism. These two go way back—to apartheid South Africa, where both quietly profited while the world boycotted, and to Hakluyt, the covert intelligence firm founded by former MI6 agents to serve, among others, the sensitive needs of Shell and BP boardrooms.

So now, as BP limps along with slumping shares, billions in Deepwater Horizon liabilities, and a CEO who’s gone from “Beyond Petroleum” to “Beyond Hope,” Shell smells opportunity. Call it the hostile hug of the hydrocarbon age.

🛢️ The Numbers Game: How to Build a Bigger Disaster

Let’s break it down. According to UBS, combining these two London-based petro-punchers would create a company churning out nearly 5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. That’s 85% more than Shell’s current output and even more than ExxonMobil’s Q1 haul of 4.6 million barrels/day.

As a bonus, Shell would inherit BPX, the shale unit it regretfully sold before prices soared. You know who was upstream director at the time of that brilliant move? Wael Sawan, Shell’s now-CEO. Redemption arcs are in vogue.

🔥 LNG, Trading, and Other Euphemisms for Pollution

Shell is already king of liquefied natural gas (LNG)—because nothing says “clean energy” like shipping methane around the world. With BP, they’d sell over 90 million tonnes a year, locking in market dominance and planetary doom simultaneously.

Both companies are also commodity trading juggernauts, raking in billions through opaque, asset-heavy dealings. Merging would unleash a storm of “synergies”—consultant-speak for job cuts, regulatory evasion, and market consolidation.

🧾 Debt, Disaster, and Deepwater Liabilities

But wait—there’s baggage. BP still owes $1 billion a year for the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe, and its leverage ratio is a hefty 48%, making it the financial equivalent of a sinking tanker. RBC called the debt “a poisoned chalice,” which, frankly, is generous. Poisoned chalices can at least be put down.

Shell has always prided itself on fiscal conservatism—until now, perhaps. Because when it comes to absorbing BP’s debt, leasing commitments, and climate-destroying portfolio, Shell’s appetite seems to have no bottom. Must be all that BlackRock muscle pushing them along—yes, that “ESG-conscious” investor that still owns massive chunks of both companies while preaching sustainability like a street-corner preacher selling cigarettes.

🛒 Asset Sales: Buy Big, Dump Fast

Should the merger go ahead, Shell might ditch BP’s retail division entirely—worth $30–$40 billion, per RBC—and unload “non-core” assets in Iraq, Azerbaijan, India, and Abu Dhabi. Because what’s the point of synergy if it doesn’t include a fire sale?

RBC put it bluntly:

“We consider the non-core parts of the portfolio being too significant to overcome.”

Translation: Even Shell thinks BP owns too much sketchy stuff.

🧨 Competition? What Competition?

The merger would balloon Shell’s fuel retail footprint by 48%, adding over 21,000 locations and bringing the total to 65,000 worldwide. That’s enough to trigger competition regulators from Brussels to Bangalore. But don’t worry—they’ll just sell off a few thousand stations and call it a compromise. After all, Shell has form when it comes to navigating regulators with the finesse of a ghost through a wall.

💸 “Accretive by 2026” – And Other Fairy Tales

Shell CEO Wael Sawan has described free cash flow per share as his “north star.” According to RBC, this merger would be accretive on that metric by 2026. That’s if you ignore, of course, the Macondo blowback, the debt mountain, and the complete moral collapse of two companies masquerading as climate leaders.

🎩 The Other Suitors Lurking in the Wings

It’s not just Shell eyeing BP’s crumbling empire. Exxon, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Adnoc, and even Vitol, the commodity trader with all the subtlety of a hedge fund on amphetamines, have “run the numbers,” per the Financial Times.

So far, Shell’s official line is that buying back its own stock is the better move. But Sawan hedged, saying:

“We will always look at these things, but you are also looking to see what the alternative is.”

And if BP’s stock keeps nosediving—it’s already down 30% this year—the “alternative” may be too tempting to resist.

---

 

Disclosure:

This article was generated with the support of artificial intelligence and reviewed by a human editor. All quotes are accurate and factual integrity has been preserved. Historical references to Hakluyt and apartheid-era operations are based on public domain reporting and disclosures.

This website and sisters royaldutchshellgroup.com, shellnazihistory.com, royaldutchshell.website, johndonovan.website, shellnews.net, and shellwikipedia.com, are owned by John Donovan. There is also a Wikipedia segment.