LNG: a US success story that tests the laws of economics

singapore love: Rumor on the street is the Shell Vito project is over a year behind schedule, AND Shell plans to double down and award Whale to the same contractors in the coming weeks. Must be some serious love going on between the Singaporeans and Shell decision makers....

Bonus Group: To uscitizen, BRAZIL: 'PS - Shell is investing 2 billion a year into Brazil and already paying off'. Assuming $2Bn (you did not quote currency), that would just about cover Shell's share of the costs of replicants, operating expenses and of course managers' BONUSES! $2Bn would represent approximately 10% of Shell's income in 2018. https://reports.shell.com/annual-report/2018/consolidated-financial-statements/statement-of-cash-flows.php FPSO unit cost: our initial case ($91bn total capex) assumed a cost of $2.5 billion for each of 13 FPSO units. However, our research shows a wide range of possibilities for this cost depending on the vessel configuration; plus the fact that Brazilian shipyards should get better at building them so the cost could reduce over time. Also the project might choose to lease rather than buy the FPSOs outright, which could improve economics for the consortium depending on the lease terms. http://openoil.net/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/OO_br_Libra_narrative_1.0_161104.pdf

Bonus Group: To uscitizen, BG GROUP ASSETS SOLD BY SHELL SUBSEQUENT TO TAKEOVER: Petrobras and Total announced that they have finalized a decisive milestone in the realization of their Strategic Alliance, signed in March 2017, with the completion of the following transactions: Transfer from Petrobras to Total of 22.5% of the rights of the Iara area, which comprises the Sururu, Berbigão and Oeste de Atapu fields in Block BM-S-11A in the Santos Basin pre-salt, operated by Petrobras (42.5%) alongside Shell (25%) and Petrogal (10%). The consideration for the above transactions amounts to US$1.95 billion, including closing adjustments. This amount does not include US$ 400 million that can be triggered by Petrobras to carry a part of its investment share in the Iara development fields and contingent payments. http://www.petrobras.com.br/en/news/petrobras-and-total-complete-the-transfer-of-rights-in-the-lapa-and-iara-concessions-as-part-of-their-strategic-alliance.htm Royal Dutch Shell is nearing the sale of a large part of its North Sea oil and gas assets to private equity-backed Chrysaor for $3 billion, banking sources said, marking a milestone in its drive to reduce debt after buying BG Group. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shell-m-a-northsea/shell-set-to-sell-3-billion-north-sea-assets-to-chrysaor-idUSKBN15B14M Including this week’s US$750 million sale of an offshore shallow water gas field in Thailand. https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2018/1/shell-has-sold-us27-billion-assets-acquiring-bg-group-charts/ The deal covers Shell’s interests in the fields Buzzard, Beryl, Bressay, Elgin-Franklin, J-Block, the Greater Armada cluster, Everest, Lomond and Erskine, and a 10% stake in Schiehallion. Shell also announced on Tuesday that it had sold its stake in a Thai gas field for $900m to a subsidiary of the Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/31/shell-sells-north-sea-oil-gas-fields-chrysaor-linda-cook TOTAL: $5.7Bn = 21% of $27Bn

Bonus Group: To uscitizen: OVERPAID: Shell offered BG Group Shareholders a premium of approximately 52% to the 90 trading day volume weighted average price of 890.4pence per BG Share on 7 April 2015 https://www.shell.com/investors/financial-reporting/pre-combination-bg-group-publications/recommended-cash-and-share-offer-for-bg-group-plc-by-royal-dutch-shell-plc/_jcr_content/par/textimage_931903780.stream/1447807511882/98173e46e15c9a96a2e68397b2b75093c96c3720/offer-announcement-royaldutchshellplc-bggroupplc.pdf Since agreeing the largest single upstream-centric deal of the past 10 years to purchase BG Group in April 2015, Royal Dutch Shell has been selling assets all over the world to rationalize its portfolio. https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2018/1/shell-has-sold-us27-billion-assets-acquiring-bg-group-charts/

uscitizen: Bonus group, Contradict myself - lol. Poor guy - like I said do your own research - tell us what you find, you will look like the irrational uneducated poster you are. PS - Shell is investing 2 billion a year into Brazil and already paying off. Do you ever look anything up?

Bonus Group: To US Citizen. Thank you for your post of September 9th 2019 20:12. Congratulations on also being an avid reader of this blog. You are correct in my post of June 26th 2019 23:05 I did say that '..Shell had a ‘fire sale’ of a plethora of BG ‘dross’ assets in order to raise $30Bn to disguise the amount by which they had overpaid for BG Group.' More correctly, Shell had a ‘fire sale’ including a plethora of BG ‘dross’ assets in order to raise $30Bn to disguise the amount by which they had overpaid for BG Group. This does not detract from the fact that Shell did have a 'fire sale' in order to raise $30Bn. By my estimation Shell over paid for BG Group by about 30%. The Christmas boxes were very large, but the presents were very small. You contradict yourself when you say that you will not do my homework for me, but then tell me that the split of the $30Bn assets sold was 80:20 Shell:BG. Is that correct? If so, thank you that just goes to show how worthless those BG assets were, but then that is what you can expect from a Cappuccino and Belgian chocolate lifestyle company. Any comments about what the Brazil Asset are up to these days?

uscitizen: To Bonus Group - the large percentage of assets sold by Shell were non BG assets. I will not do your homework for you, but the split is 80/20. A great example of why you do not take what this sites protagonists post as good information. But go ahead, say I am wrong and also posting garbage, do your research and tell me the number of BG asset sales vs the 30 billion Shell raised thru asset sales.

John Donovan: MESSAGE FROM JOHN FOR THE ATTENTION OF BOGUS GROUP. I have received the information you kindly sent and have replied by encrypted email.

Bill Campbell Prelude Comment: I might write in more detail but I find it rather ironic that it was this website that was telling the world 6 or so years ago that this installation did not have risk levels as low as claimed and one of the principal risk drivers was the compact nature of a hazardous substances plant with not enough space to swing a cat in. Unless you are not aware I wrote to Shell Australia at the time giving them data from 8 existing or planned onshore LNG plants which varied from 80 to 100 hectares or on average 20 to 22 times the footprint of Prelude, could they tell me as a stakeholder with shares in the Company how they arrived at their ridiculously low number but can guess I assume that a reasonable explanatory reply was not forthcoming, as sure as eggs are eggs if this plant is currently having problems or if it has problems or major accident events in future it will be due to the force fitting a complex plant, with risk levels much above which they have published, on a postage stamp of a footprint. God willing they will never live to regret their fraudulent overly optimistic claims, risk is based on reality not wishful thinking. Bill

Bogus Group: UPDATED SAT 24 AUG 22.00. John, here's the link, can you access from here? https://www.upstreamonline.com/live/1836861/shell-learns-from-prelude-challenges

REPLY FROM JOHN:

Thanks. Problem is that it's behind a paywall and despite it being a great publication for the oil industry, none of us retired folk wants to invest in a subscription.

FURTHER REPLY FROM JOHN

I have received the further Prelude information you have kindly provided and have replied by encripted email.

Bonus Group: Further to Bogus Group's post yesterday. I am absolutely appalled that a Senior Executive of Royal Dutch Shell plc should spout so much nonsense concerning the Prelude installation. The statement is redolent of Malcolm Brinded and his 'Touch F*ck All' policy, which led to the deaths of Keith Moncrieff and Sean McCue on Brent Bravo on 11th September 2003. What is boring is the continuous misleading spin and blather from the top of this company and their lackadaisical approach to safety. 'Chronic Unease' is a well known expression in the Oil and Gas Industry, and that state of mind is far from boring or routine. In fact nothing is either boring or routine in Oil and Gas operations. Rob Jager moved last year to the post of VP Prelude after spending thirteen years as Country Chair and VP for Shell New Zealand/Shell Taranaki, after Shell announced the sale of its New Zealand interests in March 2018. Jager clearly previously has spent too much time being 'laid back' in the fantasy land of Lord of the Rings, marvelling at New Zealand's scenery and wondering who will be entertaining him for his next luxury seafood dinner accompanied by a glass of chilled expensive New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc.

Bogus Group: PLEASE SEE REPLY FROM JOHN WHICH FOLLOWS THE COMMENT FROM BOGUS GROUP More on Prelude article in Upstream.

I’m stunned by what can only be described as idiotic statements. Nothing like the utopia of self-aggrandisement without verification. What is Jagers’ level of technical and operational capabilities? I recall similar rhetoric from BG Group charlatans, with the “best in class” mentality and use of the most overstated expression ever to be used outside the education sector, all aimed at pleasing their taskmasters. Ramp-up of Prelude and what Jager hopes will be decades of “uneventful” and “boring” operation. “This will be a state where little or nothing happens. We have few if any alarms, no surprises and where things are running like clock work and we are effectively in autopilot,” he said. “We will know when we have succeeded in this ambition because Prelude will be recognised as the most boring asset in Shell global portfolio our people will refer to it as the safest and most desirable place to work, and when the rest of the industry is knocking on our door to find out how we have achieved such a best in class outcome, especially for a facility as complex and unique as Prelude.”

REPLY FROM JOHN

Hello, I would be grateful if you could send me a copy of the article via [email protected] using an anonymous email address. I would pass it on to retired Shell EP experts for their assessment.

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